Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
68.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W41-24 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W30-24 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W28-10 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W35-24 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:76% | |
| 7 | 10/08 | W31-24 | |
| 9 | 10/23 | Win prob:83% | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:50% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:90% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:95% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:69% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:65% |
Data from 2024-10-20
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 16.5% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 38.4% | 96.5% |
| 6-2 | 31.6% | 47.1% |
| 5-3 | 11.5% | 3.4% |
| 4-4 | 1.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
62.8%
33.8%
2.9%
0.3%
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 72.0% (+3.2%) | 53.7% (-15.1%) | |
| 67.5% (-1.4%) | 72.7% (+3.9%) | |
| 69.3% (+0.5%) | 68.7% (-0.2%) | |
| 74.2% (+5.3%) | 68.6% (-0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Liberty
Florida International
UTEP
Middle TennesseeCCG: 82.3% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LibertyCCG: 72.0% • Scenario: 82.7%
Data from 2024-10-20
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
11.8%Any 1 loss
97.1%
32.0%
100.0%
3.8%
100.0%
2.4%100.0%
1.3%
100.0%
0.7%
99.4%
6.6%
95.8%
12.0%
92.6%
5.3%Any 2 losses
62.7%
33.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%99.8%
2.1%99.7%
0.3%95.3%
0.7%94.7%
3.9%93.7%
0.3%92.8%
1.7%79.9%
1.3%79.0%
2.6%78.6%
1.3%76.1%
0.7%61.1%
0.6%61.1%
1.1%48.8%
6.5%37.6%
2.9%8.4%
5.5%Any 3 losses
33.2%
14.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.2%
0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.3%
0.2%81.7%
<0.1%80.5%
0.4%79.7%
0.2%78.2%
0.5%77.5%
0.8%73.0%
0.1%72.9%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.0%
0.3%59.7%
<0.1%56.9%
0.2%51.2%
2.0%50.8%
0.4%40.7%
<0.1%35.3%
0.9%31.7%
0.2%21.1%
0.3%11.9%
0.1%9.4%
0.1%8.3%
0.3%7.6%
0.7%7.5%
1.7%6.4%
1.4%4.1%
0.3%2.1%
0.6%1.0%
0.6%0.7%
1.1%Any 4 losses
9.1%
3.3%100.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.6%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%65.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%48.1%
0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%22.0%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.0%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.6%
0.3%5.2%
0.4%3.6%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.7%
0.2%0.8%
0.4%0.6%
0.2%0.5%
1.0%Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20