Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
20.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-10 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W34-10 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L33-41 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W41-38 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W23-13 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W34-24 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W34-24 | |
| 10 | 10/29 | Win prob:34% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:86% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:48% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:72% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:77% |
Data from 2024-10-20
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 7.6% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 30.2% | 40.5% |
| 6-2 | 37.9% | 2.6% |
| 5-3 | 19.8% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 4.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 21.2% (+0.4%) | 20.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 20.8% (+0.0%) | 20.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 20.7% (-0.1%) | 20.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 24.7% (+3.9%) | 20.4% (-0.4%) | |
| 21.0% (+0.2%) | 20.5% (-0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Southern Miss
Georgia Southern
App State
UL Monroe
Arkansas StateCCG: 57.1% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UL MonroeCCG: 24.7% • Scenario: 9.5%
Data from 2024-10-20
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
7.6%Any 1 loss
40.5%
30.2%
100.0%
3.1%88.1%
2.3%79.8%
1.3%
50.3%
8.4%
12.3%
15.1%Any 2 losses
7.2%
13.5%42.5%
0.9%20.0%
0.5%11.4%
0.4%4.4%
5.9%3.6%
3.3%2.1%
2.5%Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20