Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W45-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L14-31 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L14-49 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W27-20 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W52-37 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | L23-24 | |
| 8 | 10/17 | W35-20 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:76% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:84% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:60% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:42% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:8% |
Data from 2024-10-20
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 1.3% | 41.4% |
| 6-2 | 18.1% | 2.0% |
| 5-3 | 40.8% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 30.1% | 0.0% |
| 3-5 | 8.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.3% (+0.2%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.7%) | 1.7% (+0.7%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.0%) | 1.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (-0.0%) | 1.1% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Southern Miss
Old Dominion
Georgia State
South Alabama
TroyCCG: 4.8% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Old DominionCCG: 1.7% • Scenario: 53.0%
Data from 2024-10-20
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
41.4%
1.3%Any 1 loss
10.1%
3.3%44.3%
0.2%
35.2%
0.4%4.3%
1.8%
1.7%
0.9%Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20