UL MonroeWarhawks

5-1 T1st (3-0) in SBC

Data from 2024-10-20 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

2.4%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/29	vsJackson StateJKST	W30-14
2	9/07	vsUABUAB	W32-6
4	9/21	@TexasTEX	L3-51
5	9/28	@TroyTROY	W13-9
6	10/05	vsJames MadisonJMU	W21-19
7	10/12	vsSouthern MissUSM	W38-21
9	10/26	@South AlabamaUSA	Win prob:10%
10	11/02	@MarshallMRSH	Win prob:24%
11	11/09	vsTexas StateTXST	Win prob:17%
12	11/16	@AuburnAUB	Win prob:13%
13	11/23	@Arkansas StateARST	Win prob:41%
14	11/30	vsLouisianaUL	Win prob:23%

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	0.0%	100.0%
7-1	0.8%	66.1%
6-2	6.5%	21.8%
5-3	24.5%	1.7%
4-4	42.2%	0%
3-5	25.9%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

58.5%

30.3%

5.4%

4.1%

1.7%

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Southern MissUSM@James MadisonJMU	2.8% (+0.3%)	2.4% (+0.0%)
Georgia SouthernGASO@Old DominionODU	2.5% (+0.0%)	2.4% (-0.0%)
Georgia StateGAST@App StateAPP	2.4% (-0.0%)	2.4% (+0.0%)
UL MonroeULM@South AlabamaUSA	11.5% (+9.0%)	1.5% (-0.9%)
TroyTROY@Arkansas StateARST	2.3% (-0.1%)	2.6% (+0.2%)

Best Winner Combination for

Southern Miss

Georgia Southern

App State

UL Monroe

Arkansas State

CCG: 28.6% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

UL Monroe

CCG: 11.5% • Scenario: 9.5%

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

73.7%

0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

79.5%

<0.1%

55.6%

<0.1%

23.5%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

54.6%

1.2%

100.0%

0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

98.1%

<0.1%

71.1%

0.3%

70.0%

0.1%

68.1%

<0.1%

60.2%

0.1%

23.1%

<0.1%

22.7%

0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

6.3%

<0.1%

5.6%

<0.1%

2.8%

<0.1%

Any 3 losses

28.0%

4.6%

96.0%

0.1%

71.1%

0.9%

59.6%

0.3%

28.8%

0.5%

20.0%

<0.1%

11.8%

0.2%

8.9%

0.1%

8.7%

0.2%

8.2%

0.4%

7.6%

0.2%

1.5%

1.0%

1.5%

0.5%

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com