Sun Belt Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-08-22
Conference Standings
| T1 |  James MadisonJMU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 51.2% | |
| T1 |  Texas StateTXST | 0-0 | 0-0 | 50.5% | |
| T1 |  MarshallMRSH | 0-0 | 0-0 | 23.7% | |
| T1 |  South AlabamaUSA | 0-0 | 0-0 | 22.6% | |
| T1 |  TroyTROY | 0-0 | 0-0 | 12.6% | |
| T1 |  Old DominionODU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 11.1% | |
| T1 |  LouisianaUL | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10.9% | |
| T1 |  App StateAPP | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9.8% | |
| T1 |  Georgia SouthernGASO | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3.2% | |
| T1 |  Arkansas StateARST | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2.4% | |
| T1 |  UL MonroeULM | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.9% | |
| T1 |  Coastal CarolinaCCU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.6% | |
| T1 |  Georgia StateGAST | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.4% | |
| T1 |  Southern MissUSM | 0-0 | 0-0 | <0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 51.2%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2025-08-22
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James MadisonJMU | 100% | 81.7% | 54.1% | 22.4% | 4.7% | - | 51.2% |
| Texas StateTXST | 100% | 81.0% | 54.5% | 25.4% | 4.3% | - | 50.5% |
| MarshallMRSH | 100% | 75.7% | 46.0% | 19.4% | 3.4% | <0.1% | 23.7% |
| South AlabamaUSA | 100% | 52.0% | 13.8% | 2.4% | 0.3% | - | 22.6% |
| TroyTROY | 100% | 57.6% | 24.2% | 4.9% | 0.5% | - | 12.6% |
| Old DominionODU | 100% | 59.0% | 21.7% | 5.5% | 0.9% | - | 11.1% |
| LouisianaUL | 100% | 73.6% | 45.0% | 16.1% | 2.0% | - | 10.9% |
| App StateAPP | 100% | 55.5% | 13.8% | 2.6% | 0.3% | - | 9.8% |
| Georgia SouthernGASO | 100% | 59.0% | 15.5% | 2.5% | 0.2% | - | 3.2% |
| Arkansas StateARST | 100% | 69.6% | 30.0% | 7.8% | 1.2% | - | 2.4% |
| UL MonroeULM | 100% | 67.9% | 24.2% | 5.2% | 0.8% | - | 0.9% |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU | 100% | 97.4% | 42.3% | 9.3% | 1.2% | - | 0.6% |
| Georgia StateGAST | - | 66.7% | 52.9% | 17.1% | 3.2% | <0.1% | 0.4% |
| Southern MissUSM | - | - | 16.7% | 7.9% | 2.4% | - | <0.1% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James MadisonJMU(0-0) | 7.3% | 24.9% | 33.4% | 23.0% | 9.1% | 2.1% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.9 |
| Texas StateTXST(0-0) | 7.1% | 23.6% | 32.6% | 23.5% | 10.3% | 2.4% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.8 |
| South AlabamaUSA(0-0) | 5.3% | 22.9% | 34.5% | 25.0% | 9.8% | 2.2% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.8 |
| App StateAPP(0-0) | 1.1% | 8.3% | 23.3% | 31.4% | 23.3% | 9.9% | 2.4% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 4.9 |
| TroyTROY(0-0) | 1.1% | 7.9% | 22.2% | 31.1% | 24.3% | 10.5% | 2.6% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 4.9 |
| MarshallMRSH(0-0) | 1.3% | 8.2% | 21.0% | 29.2% | 23.9% | 12.2% | 3.5% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 4.8 |
| Old DominionODU(0-0) | 0.8% | 6.8% | 20.2% | 30.3% | 25.3% | 12.6% | 3.5% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 4.7 |
| LouisianaUL(0-0) | 0.2% | 2.3% | 10.3% | 23.5% | 31.0% | 22.4% | 8.7% | 1.4% | <0.1% | 4.1 |
| Georgia SouthernGASO(0-0) | 0.1% | 1.8% | 8.9% | 23.2% | 32.1% | 23.3% | 8.9% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 4.0 |
| Arkansas StateARST(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.4% | 3.0% | 11.4% | 24.8% | 31.1% | 21.4% | 7.2% | 0.8% | 3.2 |
| UL MonroeULM(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 6.6% | 18.2% | 29.8% | 28.0% | 13.4% | 2.6% | 2.7 |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.4% | 3.0% | 11.6% | 26.1% | 33.4% | 20.8% | 4.7% | 2.3 |
| Georgia StateGAST(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 5.0% | 16.0% | 30.8% | 32.6% | 14.5% | 1.7 |
| Southern MissUSM(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.1% | 1.3% | 6.8% | 22.7% | 40.5% | 28.5% | 1.1 |
Data from 2025-08-22