Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
10.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:74% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:21% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:71% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:50% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:22% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:91% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:40% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:30% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:35% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:59% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:80% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.2% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 2.3% | 73.6% |
| 6-2 | 10.3% | 45.0% |
| 5-3 | 23.5% | 16.1% |
| 4-4 | 31.0% | 2.0% |
| 3-5 | 22.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 8.7% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.4% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
78.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%62.1%
<0.1%53.4%
<0.1%17.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
62.7%
2.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%91.1%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.7%
0.1%76.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.1%
0.1%61.2%
0.1%54.7%
0.2%51.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.7%
0.1%19.1%
<0.1%16.8%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
49.8%
6.2%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.3%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%96.1%
0.2%94.4%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%78.5%
0.4%77.4%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.8%
0.1%73.1%
<0.1%71.8%
0.1%70.6%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%66.9%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.4%
0.6%60.3%
0.2%60.0%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.8%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%34.8%
0.1%34.1%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.5%
<0.1%28.7%
0.1%28.0%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.9%
0.5%23.8%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
0.1%10.7%
0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.2%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.6%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.6%
0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.5%
0.2%2.1%
<0.1%1.8%
0.2%1.2%
<0.1%1.2%
0.2%Any 4 losses
30.6%
11.7%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.9%
<0.1%94.4%
0.2%94.3%
<0.1%93.9%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.1%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.3%
0.1%77.1%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.5%
0.4%72.8%
0.2%72.7%
<0.1%69.8%
0.3%69.4%
<0.1%67.7%
0.7%66.8%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.2%
<0.1%62.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.8%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.6%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%52.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.6%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%30.2%
0.5%29.5%
0.2%28.6%
<0.1%28.3%
0.2%25.5%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.2%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.5%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.8%
0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.1%
<0.1%13.9%
0.3%13.7%
0.2%13.3%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.3%
<0.1%11.0%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.5%
0.4%10.0%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.6%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
0.1%5.0%
0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%3.9%
0.1%3.9%
0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
0.9%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
0.3%2.7%
0.3%2.6%
0.3%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.3%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.7%0.5%
0.2%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2025-08-22