Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
12.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:17% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:40% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:52% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:47% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:24% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:69% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:60% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:75% | |
| 12 | 11/13 | Win prob:42% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:85% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:86% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 7.9% | 57.6% |
| 6-2 | 22.2% | 24.2% |
| 5-3 | 31.1% | 4.9% |
| 4-4 | 24.3% | 0.5% |
| 3-5 | 10.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 2.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
78.6%
0.5%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%44.7%
<0.1%20.9%
0.1%Any 2 losses
57.6%
2.9%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.9%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%79.3%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.9%
0.1%60.4%
<0.1%56.7%
<0.1%45.8%
0.2%43.3%
<0.1%40.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%28.6%
0.1%28.6%
0.1%27.8%
0.5%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.3%
0.1%22.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.5%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
40.6%
8.8%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.1%
0.1%98.0%
0.1%97.3%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.2%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.1%
0.1%69.5%
0.2%69.1%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.6%
<0.1%58.6%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%52.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%46.8%
0.2%44.8%
0.3%44.4%
<0.1%44.2%
0.3%44.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.5%
<0.1%42.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
0.8%29.6%
<0.1%29.1%
0.7%29.0%
0.1%27.9%
0.2%27.8%
0.5%27.3%
<0.1%26.7%
0.1%26.5%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.8%
0.1%21.8%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.2%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.6%
0.1%0.9%
0.3%0.8%
0.1%0.5%
0.6%0.5%
0.2%Any 4 losses
28.0%
14.0%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.4%
0.2%96.3%
<0.1%95.3%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.7%
<0.1%93.2%
<0.1%93.1%
<0.1%92.0%
0.1%90.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.4%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.0%
0.2%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%69.4%
0.2%67.9%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.6%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%55.3%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%50.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.2%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
0.3%44.0%
0.4%43.8%
0.2%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.1%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.4%
0.2%31.0%
<0.1%31.0%
<0.1%30.8%
0.1%30.5%
<0.1%30.1%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%28.9%
0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.4%
0.6%27.9%
1.1%27.8%
<0.1%26.3%
0.8%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.3%
0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.4%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.9%
0.1%7.6%
<0.1%7.5%
0.2%7.5%
<0.1%6.5%
0.4%6.2%
0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.2%
0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
0.2%4.1%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
0.2%3.4%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.3%
0.3%3.3%
0.2%2.5%
0.2%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
0.4%1.9%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
0.2%1.7%
0.1%1.5%
0.3%1.4%
<0.1%1.0%
0.2%1.0%
0.1%1.0%
0.5%0.9%
0.5%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.5%Data from 2025-08-22