Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
23.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:3% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:80% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:80% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:50% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:63% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:43% | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:76% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:42% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:79% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:50% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:75% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 8.2% | 75.7% |
| 6-2 | 21.0% | 46.0% |
| 5-3 | 29.2% | 19.4% |
| 4-4 | 23.9% | 3.4% |
| 3-5 | 12.2% | 0.0% |
| 2-6 | 3.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
95.7%
0.9%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
76.9%
5.4%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
0.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.2%
0.2%97.8%
0.2%93.2%
0.3%88.2%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%76.4%
0.7%75.0%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%71.4%
0.4%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%25.7%
<0.1%21.4%
1.0%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
54.3%
14.5%100.0%
0.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.6%
0.3%99.1%
0.2%98.5%
0.2%98.3%
<0.1%97.9%
0.3%96.9%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%89.7%
0.3%89.1%
0.3%88.9%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%83.9%
<0.1%81.9%
0.8%80.5%
1.0%78.1%
0.2%77.8%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%76.3%
0.2%75.0%
<0.1%74.0%
<0.1%73.3%
0.4%72.6%
0.6%66.7%
<0.1%65.3%
0.1%62.7%
0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%41.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.6%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.4%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.5%
0.2%24.1%
0.2%24.0%
1.3%23.2%
1.0%21.9%
0.2%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.3%
0.3%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.3%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.2%
0.1%12.3%
0.3%11.8%
<0.1%11.0%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.9%
0.1%4.8%
0.4%4.2%
0.2%2.9%
0.4%2.5%
0.3%1.0%
1.0%Any 4 losses
33.0%
20.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.7%
<0.1%98.7%
0.3%98.6%
<0.1%98.4%
0.3%96.9%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.1%
0.3%91.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%89.2%
<0.1%88.7%
<0.1%88.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.4%
0.2%82.3%
<0.1%82.1%
1.0%81.5%
0.2%80.7%
0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
0.2%78.4%
0.2%76.2%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.3%
0.1%73.4%
0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.8%
0.5%70.6%
0.1%70.1%
0.2%70.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%39.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.2%
0.1%27.6%
<0.1%26.8%
<0.1%26.5%
1.3%25.8%
<0.1%25.4%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%23.8%
0.3%23.5%
<0.1%23.5%
0.4%23.2%
0.3%22.8%
<0.1%22.7%
0.2%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
0.2%21.1%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.7%
<0.1%20.5%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.4%
0.2%19.3%
0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.3%
0.2%16.9%
0.3%16.8%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.4%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.4%
0.2%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.1%
0.2%12.5%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.8%
0.3%10.5%
<0.1%10.4%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
0.3%8.8%
0.6%7.9%
<0.1%7.6%
0.1%7.5%
<0.1%6.5%
0.1%6.5%
0.4%5.5%
<0.1%5.3%
0.4%4.9%
0.3%4.6%
<0.1%4.2%
0.4%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
0.3%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
0.4%3.2%
<0.1%2.7%
0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
0.3%1.9%
0.3%1.1%
0.9%1.1%
1.3%1.0%
0.8%0.9%
0.6%0.9%
0.2%0.8%
0.1%Data from 2025-08-22