Mountain West Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-10-26
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Boise StateBOIS | 4-0 | 6-2 | 94.4% | |
| T1 |  San Diego StateSDSU | 3-0 | 6-1 | 56.0% | |
| 3 |  Hawai'iHAW | 3-1 | 6-2 | 7.2% | |
| 4 |  UNLVUNLV | 2-1 | 6-1 | 36.5% | |
| T5 |  New MexicoUNM | 2-2 | 5-3 | 2.3% | |
| T5 |  Utah StateUSU | 2-2 | 4-4 | 0.9% | |
| T5 |  Fresno StateFRES | 2-2 | 5-3 | 0.8% | |
| T5 |  WyomingWYO | 2-2 | 4-4 | 0.5% | |
| 9 |  San José StateSJSU | 1-2 | 2-5 | 1.3% | |
| 10 |  Colorado StateCSU | 1-3 | 2-6 | <0.1% | |
| 11 |  Air ForceAF | 1-4 | 2-5 | - | |
| 12 |  NevadaNEV | 0-4 | 1-7 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 94.4%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 94.4% (-0.0%) | 94.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 97.0% (+2.6%) | 93.7% (-0.7%) | |
| 94.7% (+0.3%) | 94.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 77.5% (-16.9%) | 96.3% (+1.9%) | |
| 93.1% (-1.3%) | 95.2% (+0.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Air ForceNew MexicoWyomingBoise StateSan José StateCCG: 99.2% • Scenario: 0.8%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Boise StateCCG: 96.3% • Scenario: 89.8%
Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise StateBOIS | 100% | 99.6% | 59.2% | 2.8% | 94.4% |
| San Diego StateSDSU | 100% | 94.3% | 51.1% | 8.1% | 56.0% |
| UNLVUNLV | - | 75.5% | 29.7% | 2.6% | 36.5% |
| Hawai'iHAW | - | 99.2% | 44.1% | 1.0% | 7.2% |
| New MexicoUNM | - | - | 74.9% | 1.6% | 2.3% |
| San José StateSJSU | - | - | 26.2% | 0.3% | 1.3% |
| Utah StateUSU | - | - | 67.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Fresno StateFRES | - | - | 34.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% |
| WyomingWYO | - | - | 25.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Colorado StateCSU | - | - | - | 9.1% | <0.1% |
| Air ForceAF | - | - | - | - | - |
| NevadaNEV | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2025-10-26
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise StateBOIS(4-0) | 48.1% | 40.0% | 10.8% | 1.1% | <0.1% | - | - | - | - | 7.4 |
| San Diego StateSDSU(3-0) | 7.5% | 29.6% | 37.1% | 20.2% | 5.1% | 0.5% | - | - | - | 6.1 |
| UNLVUNLV(2-1) | - | 31.5% | 41.2% | 21.3% | 5.3% | 0.7% | <0.1% | - | - | 6.0 |
| Hawai'iHAW(3-1) | - | 1.4% | 12.4% | 35.2% | 38.0% | 13.0% | - | - | - | 4.5 |
| San José StateSJSU(1-2) | - | - | 4.6% | 23.1% | 36.9% | 25.9% | 8.6% | 1.0% | - | 3.9 |
| Fresno StateFRES(2-2) | - | - | 1.8% | 19.8% | 42.3% | 29.4% | 6.7% | - | - | 3.8 |
| New MexicoUNM(2-2) | - | - | 2.7% | 18.1% | 38.6% | 31.9% | 8.7% | - | - | 3.7 |
| WyomingWYO(2-2) | - | - | 1.8% | 14.8% | 38.8% | 36.4% | 8.3% | - | - | 3.7 |
| Utah StateUSU(2-2) | - | - | 0.9% | 10.6% | 37.9% | 42.2% | 8.4% | - | - | 3.5 |
| Colorado StateCSU(1-3) | - | - | - | 0.5% | 7.8% | 30.8% | 43.0% | 17.9% | - | 2.3 |
| Air ForceAF(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 7.5% | 31.6% | 42.4% | 18.5% | - | 2.3 |
| NevadaNEV(0-4) | - | - | - | - | 0.2% | 2.9% | 17.1% | 41.9% | 37.8% | 0.9 |
Data from 2025-10-26