Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
7.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | W23-20 | |
| 1 | 8/30 | L6-40 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W37-20 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W23-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L21-23 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W44-35 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W44-26 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W31-19 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:36% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:34% | |
| 13 | 11/21 | Win prob:19% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:62% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 1.4% | 99.2% |
| 6-2 | 12.4% | 44.1% |
| 5-3 | 35.2% | 1.0% |
| 4-4 | 38.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 13.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 7.1% (-0.1%) | 7.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 7.9% (+0.7%) | 7.0% (-0.2%) | |
| 8.7% (+1.5%) | 6.9% (-0.4%) | |
| 9.6% (+2.4%) | 6.9% (-0.3%) | |
| 13.3% (+6.1%) | 3.7% (-3.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Army
UNLV
Wyoming
Fresno StateHawai'iCCG: 22.1% • Scenario: 0.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Hawai'iCCG: 13.3% • Scenario: 36.3%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.2%
1.4%Any 1 loss
44.1%
12.4%86.1%
0.9%
85.0%
2.5%30.3%
6.2%
26.0%
2.8%Any 2 losses
1.4%
23.1%6.2%
1.5%1.2%
11.2%1.0%
3.8%0.9%
1.8%0.8%
4.9%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26