Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
36.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | W38-31 | |
| 1 | 8/29 | W38-21 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W30-23 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W41-38 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W31-17 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W51-48 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L31-56 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:78% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:71% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:80% | |
| 13 | 11/21 | Win prob:81% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:86% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 31.5% | 75.5% |
| 6-2 | 41.2% | 29.7% |
| 5-3 | 21.3% | 2.6% |
| 4-4 | 5.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 36.5% (-0.1%) | 36.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 12.0% (-24.6%) | 43.4% (+6.9%) | |
| 55.3% (+18.8%) | 32.2% (-4.3%) | |
| 39.4% (+2.9%) | 36.2% (-0.3%) | |
| 37.7% (+1.2%) | 35.9% (-0.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Air ForceUNLV
Wyoming
Boise State
Hawai'iCCG: 64.5% • Scenario: 1.5%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UNLVCCG: 43.4% • Scenario: 78.1%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
75.5%
31.5%Any 1 loss
29.7%
41.2%
36.6%
7.7%
33.6%
4.8%
33.5%
12.6%
26.9%
8.9%16.3%
7.2%Any 2 losses
2.6%
21.3%4.5%
2.0%4.2%
1.3%4.1%
3.0%3.2%
3.6%3.0%
1.4%2.4%
2.1%2.1%
1.1%1.0%
2.0%1.0%
3.0%0.5%
1.8%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26