Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
6.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W34-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L13-24 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W63-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W30-27 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W24-10 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L13-31 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W24-7 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W31-20 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W21-16 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:84% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:75% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:22% |
Data from 2025-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 13.9% | 48.1% |
| 7-2 | 57.0% | 0.0% |
| 6-3 | 26.1% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 3.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 7.1% (+0.4%) | 5.4% (-1.3%) | |
| 6.7% (-0.0%) | 8.3% (+1.7%) | |
| 5.3% (-1.5%) | 8.6% (+1.9%) | |
| 8.1% (+1.4%) | 6.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 6.8% (+0.1%) | 6.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 5.5% (-1.2%) | 8.7% (+2.0%) | |
| 7.1% (+0.4%) | 6.2% (-0.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UCLA
Purdue
Penn State
Wisconsin
Iowa
MarylandCCG: 33.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
NebraskaPenn StateCCG: 9.3% • Scenario: 33.6%
Data from 2025-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
48.1%
13.9%Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02