Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
3.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W34-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L13-16 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W47-7 | |
| 4 | 9/19 | W38-28 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L15-20 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W37-0 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W25-24 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W41-3 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:37% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:42% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:97% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:77% |
Data from 2025-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 11.6% | 27.2% |
| 7-2 | 39.4% | 0.1% |
| 6-3 | 39.3% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 9.4% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 3.3% (+0.1%) | 3.0% (-0.2%) | |
| 3.1% (-0.1%) | 11.9% (+8.7%) | |
| 3.2% (-0.0%) | 3.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 3.1% (-0.1%) | 3.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 3.2% (-0.0%) | 3.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.0% (-3.2%) | 8.7% (+5.5%) | |
| 3.1% (-0.1%) | 3.3% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UCLA
Purdue
Indiana
NorthwesternIowaCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
IowaCCG: 8.7% • Scenario: 36.6%
Data from 2025-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
27.2%
11.6%Any 1 loss
0.7%
3.8%
0.7%
3.4%
0.5%
0.4%Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02