Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
10.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W59-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W69-3 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W34-14 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W41-7 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W30-24 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L20-30 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W56-10 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W21-7 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:63% | |
| 12 | 11/14 | Win prob:97% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:76% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:85% |
Data from 2025-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 39.8% | 26.3% |
| 7-2 | 43.5% | 1.0% |
| 6-3 | 15.0% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 1.7% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 10.8% (-0.0%) | 11.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 10.4% (-0.4%) | 42.6% (+31.7%) | |
| 10.3% (-0.6%) | 11.6% (+0.8%) | |
| 10.8% (-0.1%) | 10.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 11.0% (+0.1%) | 10.5% (-0.4%) | |
| 16.8% (+5.9%) | 0.6% (-10.3%) | |
| 10.9% (-0.0%) | 10.9% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UCLA
Purdue
Indiana
Northwestern
WisconsinCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OregonCCG: 16.8% • Scenario: 63.4%
Data from 2025-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
26.3%
39.8%Any 1 loss
1.0%
43.5%
1.4%
7.1%
1.4%
1.3%
0.9%
22.9%
0.8%
12.2%Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02