Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
90.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W27-14 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W56-9 | |
| 3 | 9/12 | W73-0 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W63-10 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W20-15 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W30-20 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W38-13 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W56-6 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W55-10 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:57% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:98% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:99% |
Data from 2025-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 54.9% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 43.7% | 81.5% |
| 7-2 | 1.4% | 3.7% |
| 6-3 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 90.5% (-0.1%) | 90.7% (+0.2%) | |
| 90.7% (+0.1%) | 80.1% (-10.4%) | |
| 99.4% (+8.8%) | 79.0% (-11.6%) | |
| 90.4% (-0.1%) | 90.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 90.4% (-0.1%) | 91.0% (+0.4%) | |
| 89.9% (-0.7%) | 91.7% (+1.2%) | |
| 90.6% (+0.1%) | 90.4% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 99.4% • Scenario: 56.6%
Ways for
to Clinch
CCG Spot This Week
Data from 2025-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
54.9%Any 1 loss
81.5%
43.7%81.5%
42.0%81.2%
0.8%81.1%
1.0%Any 2 losses
3.8%
1.4%4.8%
0.6%3.1%
0.8%Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02