Mid-American Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-02
Conference Standings
| 1 |  Miami (OH)M-OH | 4-0 | 5-3 | 69.8% | |
| T2 |  Western MichiganWMU | 4-1 | 5-4 | 21.7% | |
| T2 |  BuffaloBUF | 4-1 | 5-4 | 17.3% | |
| 4 |  OhioOHIO | 3-1 | 5-3 | 68.5% | |
| 5 |  Central MichiganCMU | 3-2 | 5-4 | 1.7% | |
| T6 |  ToledoTOL | 2-2 | 4-4 | 20.9% | |
| T6 |  Ball StateBALL | 2-2 | 3-5 | <0.1% | |
| T6 |  Kent StateKENT | 2-2 | 3-5 | <0.1% | |
| 9 |  AkronAKR | 2-3 | 3-6 | - | |
| 10 |  Northern IllinoisNIU | 1-3 | 2-6 | <0.1% | |
| T11 |  Bowling GreenBGSU | 1-4 | 3-6 | - | |
| T11 |  Eastern MichiganEMU | 1-4 | 2-7 | - | |
| 13 |  MassachusettsMASS | 0-4 | 0-8 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 69.8%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 69.6% (-0.2%) | 70.0% (+0.2%) | |
| 78.7% (+8.9%) | 67.8% (-2.0%) | |
| 70.0% (+0.2%) | 69.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 69.8% (+0.0%) | 69.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 95.3% (+25.5%) | 61.4% (-8.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Eastern MichiganNorthern IllinoisKent StateMassachusettsMiami (OH)CCG: 99.2% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Miami (OH)CCG: 95.3% • Scenario: 24.8%
Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami (OH)M-OH | 100% | 100% | 63.2% | 5.9% | 69.8% |
| OhioOHIO | - | 100% | 60.5% | 1.5% | 68.5% |
| Western MichiganWMU | - | 99.9% | 34.1% | 0.7% | 21.7% |
| ToledoTOL | - | - | 69.7% | 1.3% | 20.9% |
| BuffaloBUF | - | 99.5% | 51.5% | 0.3% | 17.3% |
| Central MichiganCMU | - | - | 19.3% | <0.1% | 1.7% |
| Ball StateBALL | - | - | 91.0% | 1.1% | <0.1% |
| Kent StateKENT | - | - | 14.7% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Northern IllinoisNIU | - | - | - | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| AkronAKR | - | - | - | <0.1% | - |
| Bowling GreenBGSU | - | - | - | - | - |
| Eastern MichiganEMU | - | - | - | - | - |
| MassachusettsMASS | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2025-11-02
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami (OH)M-OH(4-0) | 7.5% | 35.3% | 41.3% | 15.0% | 0.9% | - | - | - | - | 6.3 |
| OhioOHIO(3-1) | - | 42.8% | 42.1% | 13.6% | 1.6% | <0.1% | - | - | - | 6.3 |
| Western MichiganWMU(4-1) | - | 8.8% | 37.1% | 41.1% | 13.0% | - | - | - | - | 5.4 |
| BuffaloBUF(4-1) | - | 3.9% | 25.7% | 46.4% | 24.0% | - | - | - | - | 5.1 |
| ToledoTOL(2-2) | - | - | 29.1% | 47.5% | 20.2% | 3.0% | 0.1% | - | - | 5.0 |
| Central MichiganCMU(3-2) | - | - | 8.5% | 40.6% | 42.4% | 8.5% | - | - | - | 4.5 |
| AkronAKR(2-3) | - | - | - | 6.9% | 52.7% | 34.6% | 5.8% | - | - | 3.6 |
| Northern IllinoisNIU(1-3) | - | - | - | 7.4% | 42.4% | 42.4% | 7.5% | 0.4% | - | 3.5 |
| Bowling GreenBGSU(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 44.8% | 45.4% | 9.3% | 0.5% | - | 3.3 |
| Ball StateBALL(2-2) | - | - | <0.1% | 2.6% | 27.5% | 52.7% | 17.1% | - | - | 3.2 |
| Kent StateKENT(2-2) | - | - | 0.1% | 2.9% | 17.9% | 42.8% | 36.2% | - | - | 2.9 |
| Eastern MichiganEMU(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 10.4% | 37.4% | 40.2% | 12.0% | - | 2.5 |
| MassachusettsMASS(0-4) | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0.3% | 5.2% | 32.4% | 62.2% | 0.4 |
Data from 2025-11-02