Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
68.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | L31-34 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W17-10 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L9-37 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W52-35 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W35-20 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L14-20 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W48-21 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W28-21 | |
| 10 | 11/04 | Win prob:75% | |
| 11 | 11/11 | Win prob:73% | |
| 12 | 11/18 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:79% |
Data from 2025-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 42.8% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 42.1% | 60.5% |
| 5-3 | 13.6% | 1.5% |
| 4-4 | 1.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 69.2% (+0.7%) | 67.6% (-0.9%) | |
| 76.1% (+7.6%) | 66.7% (-1.8%) | |
| 67.8% (-0.7%) | 68.8% (+0.3%) | |
| 69.3% (+0.8%) | 68.2% (-0.2%) | |
| 39.7% (-28.7%) | 78.0% (+9.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Bowling Green
Northern Illinois
Ball State
MassachusettsOhioCCG: 83.5% • Scenario: 1.3%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OhioCCG: 78.0% • Scenario: 75.2%
Data from 2025-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
42.8%Any 1 loss
60.5%
42.0%91.4%
0.5%
68.7%
11.2%
68.0%
14.3%
47.3%
16.1%Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02