Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
17.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | L10-23 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-6 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W31-28 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L17-21 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L17-20 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W31-30 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W28-21 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | L16-24 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W28-3 | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:53% | |
| 13 | 11/19 | Win prob:36% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:21% |
Data from 2025-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 3.9% | 99.5% |
| 6-2 | 25.7% | 51.5% |
| 5-3 | 46.4% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 24.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 17.6% (+0.3%) | 16.9% (-0.4%) | |
| 19.8% (+2.5%) | 16.7% (-0.6%) | |
| 18.3% (+1.0%) | 16.9% (-0.4%) | |
| 17.8% (+0.5%) | 17.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 13.8% (-3.5%) | 18.4% (+1.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Eastern Michigan
Northern Illinois
Kent State
Akron
OhioCCG: 22.9% • Scenario: 1.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OhioCCG: 18.4% • Scenario: 75.2%
Data from 2025-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.5%
3.9%Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02