Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
20.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L16-24 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-21 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W60-0 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L13-14 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W45-3 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L23-28 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W45-10 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | L7-28 | |
| 11 | 11/05 | Win prob:81% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:49% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:95% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:78% |
Data from 2025-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 29.1% | 69.7% |
| 5-3 | 47.5% | 1.3% |
| 4-4 | 20.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 3.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 21.0% (+0.0%) | 20.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (-20.1%) | 25.5% (+4.6%) | |
| 20.9% (-0.0%) | 20.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 18.4% (-2.5%) | 21.6% (+0.7%) | |
| 25.3% (+4.4%) | 19.5% (-1.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Eastern MichiganToledo
Kent State
Akron
Miami (OH)CCG: 32.3% • Scenario: 2.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ToledoCCG: 25.5% • Scenario: 81.3%
Data from 2025-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
69.7%
29.1%Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02