Mountain West Conference Tiebreaker Scenarios

Scenarios where tiebreakers determine conference championship game participants

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50 of 87 scenarios

Scenario	CCG Matchup	Probability
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 90.6% Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 9.4%	6.9%
8-1 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU	5.6%
9-0 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU	4.4%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 85.5% Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 13.8%	2.6%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU	Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM	2.3%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM	2.0%
8-1 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS New MexicoUNM	Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU	1.4%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 New MexicoUNM UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM	1.3%
8-1 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS New MexicoUNM UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU	1.3%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM 43.5% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 33.1% New MexicoUNMSan Diego StateSDSU 22.7%	1.1%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM 42.5% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 36.1% New MexicoUNMSan Diego StateSDSU 21.4%	1.1%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU	Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU	1.0%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU	1.0%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 San Diego StateSDSU San José StateSJSU	Boise StateBOISSan José StateSJSU	0.8%
8-1 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES	Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU	0.8%
8-1 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 88.1% Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU 11.9%	0.8%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 San Diego StateSDSU San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU	0.7%
9-0 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES	Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU	0.6%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 58.3% Boise StateBOISSan José StateSJSU 41.8%	0.6%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Hawai'iHAW San Diego StateSDSU	Boise StateBOISHawai'iHAW	0.6%
9-0 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 96.2% Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU 3.8%	0.5%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS San Diego StateSDSU San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 68.3% San Diego StateSDSUSan José StateSJSU 28.8% Boise StateBOISSan José StateSJSU 2.1%	0.5%
8-1 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS San José StateSJSU	CCG participants not 100% certain San Diego StateSDSUSan José StateSJSU 61.3% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 38.7%	0.5%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS San Diego StateSDSU San José StateSJSU	CCG participants not 100% certain San Diego StateSDSUSan José StateSJSU 62.7% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 36.8%	0.4%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 76.8% Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU 21.6% Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 1.4%	0.4%
8-1 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 82.6% San Diego StateSDSUSan José StateSJSU 17.4%	0.4%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU 74.4% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 20.3% Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 5.3%	0.4%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS New MexicoUNM UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM	0.4%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Fresno StateFRES UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 77.6% Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 22.4%	0.4%
8-1 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS Hawai'iHAW	CCG participants not 100% certain Hawai'iHAWSan Diego StateSDSU 94.9% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 5.1%	0.3%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Hawai'iHAW San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Hawai'iHAWSan Diego StateSDSU 89.7% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 5.6% Boise StateBOISHawai'iHAW 4.7%	0.3%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 New MexicoUNM San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM	0.3%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 New MexicoUNM San José StateSJSU	Boise StateBOISSan José StateSJSU	0.3%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Fresno StateFRES New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 98.4% Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM 1.6%	0.3%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Fresno StateFRES New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 97.6% Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM 2.4%	0.3%
8-1 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 New MexicoUNM UNLVUNLV	New MexicoUNMSan Diego StateSDSU	0.2%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Fresno StateFRES New MexicoUNM UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM 42.3% Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 38.5% Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 19.2%	0.2%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan José StateSJSU 64.0% Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 23.3% San José StateSJSUUNLVUNLV 12.7%	0.2%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Fresno StateFRES New MexicoUNM	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 90.7% Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM 9.3%	0.2%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Hawai'iHAW New MexicoUNM	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM 50.8% Boise StateBOISHawai'iHAW 49.2%	0.2%
8-1 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES New MexicoUNM	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 86.8% Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU 13.3%	0.2%
8-1 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES New MexicoUNM UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU	0.2%
7-2 New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain New MexicoUNMSan Diego StateSDSU 87.7% New MexicoUNMUNLVUNLV 12.3%	0.2%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 72.9% Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU 25.8% Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM 1.3%	0.1%
8-1 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 Fresno StateFRES UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU 99.3%	0.1%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 92.4% Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM 7.6%	0.1%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU San José StateSJSU	CCG participants not 100% certain New MexicoUNMSan Diego StateSDSU 58.0% San Diego StateSDSUSan José StateSJSU 39.5% New MexicoUNMSan José StateSJSU 2.5%	0.1%
9-0 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 Fresno StateFRES UNLVUNLV	Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU	0.1%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS New MexicoUNM San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM 47.3% New MexicoUNMSan José StateSJSU 39.1% New MexicoUNMUNLVUNLV 13.6%	0.1%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS San Diego StateSDSU Utah StateUSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUtah StateUSU 64.6% San Diego StateSDSUUtah StateUSU 23.9% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 11.5%	0.1%

How Tiebreakers Work

Head-to-head → CFP rank / computer rankings → Overall winning percentage → Next-highest team → Common conference opponents

Some tiebreaker steps involve factors like point differential that cannot be predicted before games are played, leading to uncertain outcomes.