Mountain West Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-02
Conference Standings
| 1 |  San Diego StateSDSU | 4-0 | 7-1 | 79.8% | |
| 2 |  Boise StateBOIS | 4-1 | 6-3 | 89.1% | |
| T3 |  New MexicoUNM | 3-2 | 6-3 | 11.5% | |
| T3 |  Fresno StateFRES | 3-2 | 6-3 | 4.5% | |
| T3 |  Hawai'iHAW | 3-2 | 6-3 | 2.9% | |
| T6 |  UNLVUNLV | 2-2 | 6-2 | 6.9% | |
| T6 |  San José StateSJSU | 2-2 | 3-5 | 4.2% | |
| T6 |  Utah StateUSU | 2-2 | 4-4 | 0.9% | |
| 9 |  WyomingWYO | 2-3 | 4-5 | <0.1% | |
| 10 |  Colorado StateCSU | 1-3 | 2-6 | <0.1% | |
| 11 |  Air ForceAF | 1-4 | 2-6 | - | |
| 12 |  NevadaNEV | 0-4 | 1-7 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 89.1%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 91.2% (+2.2%) | 87.9% (-1.2%) | |
| 89.4% (+0.4%) | 88.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 89.2% (+0.1%) | 88.6% (-0.5%) | |
| 90.4% (+1.3%) | 85.8% (-3.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Air ForceUtah StateColorado StateSan Diego StateCCG: 92.5% • Scenario: 3.9%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
San Diego StateCCG: 90.4% • Scenario: 71.4%
Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise StateBOIS | - | 100% | 88.5% | 10.9% | - | 89.1% |
| San Diego StateSDSU | 100% | 100% | 77.3% | 12.9% | - | 79.8% |
| New MexicoUNM | - | - | 66.6% | 1.2% | - | 11.5% |
| UNLVUNLV | - | - | 14.4% | 0.4% | - | 6.9% |
| Fresno StateFRES | - | - | 36.2% | 1.4% | - | 4.5% |
| San José StateSJSU | - | - | 58.7% | 1.0% | - | 4.2% |
| Hawai'iHAW | - | - | 81.1% | 3.6% | - | 2.9% |
| Utah StateUSU | - | - | 89.8% | 3.6% | - | 0.9% |
| Colorado StateCSU | - | - | - | 42.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| WyomingWYO | - | - | - | 0.2% | - | <0.1% |
| Air ForceAF | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NevadaNEV | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2025-11-02
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego StateSDSU(4-0) | 12.8% | 38.4% | 35.0% | 12.3% | 1.5% | - | - | - | - | 6.5 |
| Boise StateBOIS(4-1) | - | 51.7% | 41.4% | 6.7% | 0.3% | - | - | - | - | 6.4 |
| UNLVUNLV(2-2) | - | - | 47.0% | 38.9% | 12.3% | 1.7% | <0.1% | - | - | 5.3 |
| New MexicoUNM(3-2) | - | - | 16.5% | 44.3% | 33.2% | 6.0% | - | - | - | 4.7 |
| Fresno StateFRES(3-2) | - | - | 11.1% | 37.4% | 39.0% | 12.5% | - | - | - | 4.5 |
| San José StateSJSU(2-2) | - | - | 6.6% | 33.4% | 39.4% | 17.8% | 2.8% | - | - | 4.2 |
| Hawai'iHAW(3-2) | - | - | 2.7% | 21.5% | 47.4% | 28.4% | - | - | - | 4.0 |
| WyomingWYO(2-3) | - | - | - | 20.0% | 45.5% | 30.0% | 4.5% | - | - | 3.8 |
| Utah StateUSU(2-2) | - | - | 0.6% | 8.6% | 35.6% | 44.4% | 10.8% | - | - | 3.4 |
| Air ForceAF(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 8.5% | 33.2% | 41.6% | 16.8% | - | 2.3 |
| Colorado StateCSU(1-3) | - | - | - | 0.1% | 3.0% | 19.4% | 46.3% | 31.2% | - | 1.9 |
| NevadaNEV(0-4) | - | - | - | - | 0.2% | 2.6% | 16.4% | 41.8% | 39.0% | 0.8 |
Data from 2025-11-02