UNLVRebels

6-2 T6th (2-2) in MWC

Data from 2025-11-02 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

6.9%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
0	8/23	vsIdaho StateIDST	W38-31
1	8/29	vsSam HoustonSHSU(N)	W38-21
2	9/06	vsUCLAUCLA	W30-23
4	9/20	@Miami (OH)M-OH	W41-38
6	10/04	@WyomingWYO	W31-17
7	10/11	vsAir ForceAF	W51-48
8	10/18	@Boise StateBOIS	L31-56
10	11/01	vsNew MexicoUNM	L35-40
11	11/08	@Colorado StateCSU	Win prob:79%
12	11/15	vsUtah StateUSU	Win prob:84%
13	11/21	vsHawai'iHAW	Win prob:81%
14	11/29	@NevadaNEV	Win prob:86%

Data from 2025-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
6-2	47.0%	14.4%
5-3	38.9%	0.4%
4-4	12.3%	0%
3-5	1.7%	0%
2-6	0.1%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

65.9%

31.9%

1.2%

0.7%

0.3%

Data from 2025-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Air ForceAF@San José StateSJSU	9.6% (+2.7%)	5.5% (-1.4%)
NevadaNEV@Utah StateUSU	6.3% (-0.7%)	7.2% (+0.2%)
UNLVUNLV@Colorado StateCSU	8.7% (+1.7%)	0.3% (-6.7%)
San Diego StateSDSU@Hawai'iHAW	4.0% (-2.9%)	14.2% (+7.3%)

Best Winner Combination for

Air Force

Utah State

UNLV

Hawai'i

CCG: 24.6% • Scenario: 5.9%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

UNLV

Hawai'i

CCG: 17.6% • Scenario: 22.7%

Data from 2025-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

14.4%

47.0%

0.6%

7.3%

Data from 2025-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com