Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | W23-20 | |
| 1 | 8/30 | L6-40 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W37-20 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W23-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L21-23 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W44-35 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W44-26 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W31-19 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | L38-45 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:29% | |
| 13 | 11/21 | Win prob:19% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:51% |
Data from 2025-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 2.7% | 81.1% |
| 5-3 | 21.5% | 3.6% |
| 4-4 | 47.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 28.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 3.3% (+0.4%) | 2.8% (-0.2%) | |
| 2.5% (-0.4%) | 3.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 2.8% (-0.1%) | 3.5% (+0.5%) | |
| 0.3% (-2.6%) | 9.5% (+6.6%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Air Force
Utah State
Colorado StateHawai'iCCG: 14.5% • Scenario: 1.6%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Hawai'iCCG: 9.5% • Scenario: 28.6%
Data from 2025-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
81.1%
2.7%Any 1 loss
3.6%
21.5%
6.6%
2.6%
3.2%
12.0%
3.2%
6.9%Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02