Sun Belt Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-02
Conference Standings
| T1 |  James MadisonJMU | 5-0 | 7-1 | 74.9% | |
| T1 |  Southern MissUSM | 4-0 | 6-2 | 21.7% | |
| T3 |  TroyTROY | 4-1 | 6-3 | 49.0% | |
| T3 |  Arkansas StateARST | 4-1 | 5-4 | 29.3% | |
| T3 |  Coastal CarolinaCCU | 4-1 | 5-3 | 2.3% | |
| 6 |  Old DominionODU | 3-2 | 6-3 | <0.1% | |
| 7 |  MarshallMRSH | 2-2 | 4-4 | 22.2% | |
| 8 |  LouisianaUL | 2-3 | 3-6 | - | |
| T9 |  App StateAPP | 1-3 | 4-4 | 0.3% | |
| T9 |  Georgia SouthernGASO | 1-3 | 3-5 | 0.2% | |
| T11 |  South AlabamaUSA | 1-4 | 2-7 | - | |
| T11 |  UL MonroeULM | 1-4 | 3-6 | - | |
| T13 |  Georgia StateGAST | 0-4 | 1-7 | - | |
| T13 |  Texas StateTXST | 0-4 | 3-5 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 74.9%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 75.0% (+0.1%) | 74.7% (-0.2%) | |
| 76.0% (+1.1%) | 74.6% (-0.4%) | |
| 98.0% (+23.1%) | 34.9% (-40.0%) | |
| 75.0% (+0.0%) | 74.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 74.9% (+0.0%) | 74.9% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
LouisianaGeorgia StateJames MadisonGeorgia SouthernSouthern MissCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.9%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
James MadisonCCG: 98.0% • Scenario: 63.4%
Ways for to Clinch CCG Spot This Week
LouisianaGeorgia StateJames MadisonGeorgia SouthernSouthern MissData from 2025-11-02
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James MadisonJMU | 100% | 49.7% | 3.7% | - | - | 74.9% |
| TroyTROY | - | 78.4% | 52.0% | 8.4% | - | 49.0% |
| Arkansas StateARST | - | 100% | 55.3% | 11.9% | - | 29.3% |
| MarshallMRSH | - | - | 98.3% | 1.1% | - | 22.2% |
| Southern MissUSM | 100% | 68.5% | 26.5% | - | - | 21.7% |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU | - | 100% | 2.3% | - | - | 2.3% |
| App StateAPP | - | - | - | 32.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Georgia SouthernGASO | - | - | - | 5.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Old DominionODU | - | - | <0.1% | <0.1% | - | <0.1% |
| Georgia StateGAST | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| LouisianaUL | - | - | - | <0.1% | - | - |
| South AlabamaUSA | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Texas StateTXST | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UL MonroeULM | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2025-11-02
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James MadisonJMU(5-0) | 54.9% | 39.9% | 5.0% | 0.2% | - | - | - | - | - | 7.5 |
| TroyTROY(4-1) | - | 27.4% | 49.4% | 21.9% | 1.4% | - | - | - | - | 6.0 |
| Southern MissUSM(4-0) | 2.2% | 14.8% | 35.3% | 35.3% | 12.4% | - | - | - | - | 5.6 |
| Arkansas StateARST(4-1) | - | 7.1% | 30.9% | 42.9% | 19.0% | - | - | - | - | 5.3 |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU(4-1) | - | 1.7% | 26.5% | 55.5% | 16.3% | - | - | - | - | 5.1 |
| Old DominionODU(3-2) | - | - | 30.9% | 47.7% | 20.0% | 1.5% | - | - | - | 5.1 |
| MarshallMRSH(2-2) | - | - | 22.0% | 50.8% | 23.5% | 3.5% | 0.1% | - | - | 4.9 |
| LouisianaUL(2-3) | - | - | - | 12.0% | 46.4% | 37.6% | 4.0% | - | - | 3.7 |
| Texas StateTXST(0-4) | - | - | - | - | 38.0% | 43.2% | 16.6% | 2.2% | <0.1% | 3.2 |
| South AlabamaUSA(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 13.0% | 51.9% | 31.5% | 3.6% | - | 2.7 |
| App StateAPP(1-3) | - | - | - | 0.7% | 12.2% | 42.2% | 36.1% | 8.8% | - | 2.6 |
| Georgia SouthernGASO(1-3) | - | - | - | 1.2% | 13.0% | 37.1% | 37.8% | 10.9% | - | 2.6 |
| UL MonroeULM(1-4) | - | - | - | - | <0.1% | 2.0% | 23.0% | 74.9% | - | 1.3 |
| Georgia StateGAST(0-4) | - | - | - | - | <0.1% | 0.5% | 6.5% | 35.1% | 57.9% | 0.5 |
Data from 2025-11-02