Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
49.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W38-20 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L16-27 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L7-28 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W21-17 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W31-24 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W48-41 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W37-14 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W35-23 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | L10-23 | |
| 12 | 11/13 | Win prob:47% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:93% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:63% |
Data from 2025-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 27.4% | 78.4% |
| 6-2 | 49.4% | 52.0% |
| 5-3 | 21.9% | 8.4% |
| 4-4 | 1.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 48.9% (-0.1%) | 49.2% (+0.3%) | |
| 49.1% (+0.1%) | 48.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 49.0% (+0.0%) | 48.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 49.0% (-0.0%) | 49.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 62.5% (+13.6%) | 32.1% (-16.9%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Louisiana
Georgia State
James Madison
Georgia Southern
Southern MissCCG: 63.6% • Scenario: 0.9%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Southern MissCCG: 62.5% • Scenario: 55.5%
Data from 2025-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
78.4%
27.4%Any 1 loss
78.2%
32.8%
78.4%
30.7%76.1%
2.1%Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02