Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
22.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L7-45 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L20-21 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W38-7 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W42-28 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L51-54 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W48-24 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W40-37 | |
| 10 | 10/30 | L27-44 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:37% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:92% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:76% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:87% |
Data from 2025-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 22.0% | 98.3% |
| 5-3 | 50.8% | 1.1% |
| 4-4 | 23.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 3.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 22.1% (-0.1%) | 22.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 23.1% (+0.9%) | 21.9% (-0.3%) | |
| 0.0% (-22.2%) | 60.7% (+38.5%) | |
| 22.5% (+0.3%) | 22.0% (-0.2%) | |
| 22.3% (+0.1%) | 22.1% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Louisiana
Georgia StateMarshall
Georgia Southern
Southern MissCCG: 64.8% • Scenario: 0.5%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MarshallCCG: 60.7% • Scenario: 36.6%
Data from 2025-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
98.3%
22.0%Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02