Sun Belt Conference Tiebreaker Scenarios

Scenarios where tiebreakers determine conference championship game participants

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50 of 202 scenarios

Scenario	CCG Matchup	Probability
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Southern MissUSM TroyTROY	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMUSouthern MissUSM 43.5% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 43.2% Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 13.3%	3.4%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Old DominionODU TroyTROY	James MadisonJMUTroyTROY	2.6%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST TroyTROY	CCG participants not 100% certain Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 70.3% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 29.7%	2.2%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST Old DominionODU TroyTROY	CCG participants not 100% certain Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 52.2% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 47.8%	1.8%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Old DominionODU Southern MissUSM TroyTROY	James MadisonJMUTroyTROY	1.7%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Old DominionODU Southern MissUSM	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMUSouthern MissUSM 67.8% Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 24.2% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 8.0%	1.4%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST Southern MissUSM TroyTROY	CCG participants not 100% certain Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 57.5% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 23.3% James MadisonJMUSouthern MissUSM 19.2%	1.3%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 MarshallMRSH Southern MissUSM TroyTROY	CCG participants not 100% certain MarshallMRSHSouthern MissUSM 42.9% MarshallMRSHTroyTROY 42.8% Arkansas StateARSTMarshallMRSH 14.3%	1.1%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Southern MissUSM TroyTROY	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMUSouthern MissUSM 45.4% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 39.2% Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 15.4%	1.0%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Coastal CarolinaCCU Southern MissUSM TroyTROY	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMUSouthern MissUSM 44.0% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 40.5% Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 15.4%	1.0%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 MarshallMRSH TroyTROY	CCG participants not 100% certain MarshallMRSHTroyTROY 83.2% Arkansas StateARSTMarshallMRSH 16.8%	0.9%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 MarshallMRSH Old DominionODU TroyTROY	MarshallMRSHTroyTROY	0.9%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Old DominionODU TroyTROY	James MadisonJMUTroyTROY	0.8%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Coastal CarolinaCCU TroyTROY	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 83.3% Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 16.7%	0.8%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Coastal CarolinaCCU Old DominionODU TroyTROY	James MadisonJMUTroyTROY	0.8%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST MarshallMRSH TroyTROY	CCG participants not 100% certain Arkansas StateARSTMarshallMRSH 69.8% MarshallMRSHTroyTROY 30.2%	0.8%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST Old DominionODU Southern MissUSM	CCG participants not 100% certain Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 71.2% James MadisonJMUSouthern MissUSM 25.3% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 3.5%	0.7%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 8-1 Arkansas StateARST TroyTROY	Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU	0.7%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST TroyTROY	CCG participants not 100% certain Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 69.3% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 30.8%	0.7%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST Coastal CarolinaCCU TroyTROY	CCG participants not 100% certain Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 71.2% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 28.8%	0.7%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST MarshallMRSH Old DominionODU TroyTROY	CCG participants not 100% certain Arkansas StateARSTMarshallMRSH 57.3% MarshallMRSHTroyTROY 42.7%	0.6%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST Old DominionODU TroyTROY	CCG participants not 100% certain Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 55.2% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 44.8%	0.6%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST Old DominionODU	CCG participants not 100% certain Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 89.5% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 10.5%	0.6%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 8-1 Southern MissUSM TroyTROY	James MadisonJMUTroyTROY	0.6%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 MarshallMRSH Old DominionODU Southern MissUSM TroyTROY	MarshallMRSHTroyTROY	0.6%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Coastal CarolinaCCU Old DominionODU Southern MissUSM TroyTROY	James MadisonJMUTroyTROY	0.6%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST Coastal CarolinaCCU Old DominionODU TroyTROY	CCG participants not 100% certain Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 56.7% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 43.3%	0.5%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Old DominionODU Southern MissUSM TroyTROY	James MadisonJMUTroyTROY	0.5%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 MarshallMRSH Old DominionODU Southern MissUSM	CCG participants not 100% certain MarshallMRSHSouthern MissUSM 67.8% Arkansas StateARSTMarshallMRSH 22.8% MarshallMRSHTroyTROY 9.4%	0.5%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST Southern MissUSM	CCG participants not 100% certain Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 70.5% James MadisonJMUSouthern MissUSM 26.4% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 3.1%	0.5%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Coastal CarolinaCCU Southern MissUSM TroyTROY	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMUSouthern MissUSM 42.3% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 42.0% Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 15.7%	0.5%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST MarshallMRSH Southern MissUSM TroyTROY	CCG participants not 100% certain Arkansas StateARSTMarshallMRSH 56.7% MarshallMRSHTroyTROY 22.3% MarshallMRSHSouthern MissUSM 21.0%	0.5%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST Old DominionODU Southern MissUSM TroyTROY	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 76.2% Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 23.8%	0.5%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Coastal CarolinaCCU Old DominionODU Southern MissUSM	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMUSouthern MissUSM 67.7% Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 23.0% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 9.3%	0.5%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Old DominionODU Southern MissUSM	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMUSouthern MissUSM 70.9% Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 19.4% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 9.8%	0.5%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST Southern MissUSM TroyTROY	CCG participants not 100% certain Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 57.4% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 21.9% James MadisonJMUSouthern MissUSM 20.8%	0.5%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Coastal CarolinaCCU Old DominionODU TroyTROY	James MadisonJMUTroyTROY	0.4%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST Coastal CarolinaCCU Southern MissUSM TroyTROY	CCG participants not 100% certain Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 56.7% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 22.3% James MadisonJMUSouthern MissUSM 21.1%	0.4%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Coastal CarolinaCCU TroyTROY	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 81.8% Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 18.2%	0.4%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Coastal CarolinaCCU Southern MissUSM	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMUSouthern MissUSM 70.1% Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 22.8% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 7.1%	0.4%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 MarshallMRSH Southern MissUSM	CCG participants not 100% certain MarshallMRSHSouthern MissUSM 69.3% Arkansas StateARSTMarshallMRSH 22.6% MarshallMRSHTroyTROY 8.2%	0.4%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Coastal CarolinaCCU MarshallMRSH Southern MissUSM TroyTROY	CCG participants not 100% certain MarshallMRSHSouthern MissUSM 44.8% MarshallMRSHTroyTROY 39.7% Arkansas StateARSTMarshallMRSH 15.5%	0.4%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST Coastal CarolinaCCU TroyTROY	CCG participants not 100% certain Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 68.1% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 31.9%	0.3%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Coastal CarolinaCCU MarshallMRSH TroyTROY	CCG participants not 100% certain MarshallMRSHTroyTROY 82.0% Arkansas StateARSTMarshallMRSH 18.0%	0.3%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Coastal CarolinaCCU MarshallMRSH Old DominionODU TroyTROY	MarshallMRSHTroyTROY	0.3%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST Coastal CarolinaCCU Old DominionODU TroyTROY	CCG participants not 100% certain Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 57.0% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 43.0%	0.3%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST MarshallMRSH Old DominionODU Southern MissUSM	CCG participants not 100% certain Arkansas StateARSTMarshallMRSH 59.8% MarshallMRSHSouthern MissUSM 34.5% MarshallMRSHTroyTROY 5.8%	0.3%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Coastal CarolinaCCU Old DominionODU Southern MissUSM TroyTROY	James MadisonJMUTroyTROY	0.3%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST Coastal CarolinaCCU Old DominionODU Southern MissUSM	CCG participants not 100% certain Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 70.2% James MadisonJMUSouthern MissUSM 25.9% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 4.0%	0.2%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Coastal CarolinaCCU Old DominionODU Southern MissUSM	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMUSouthern MissUSM 74.4% Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 19.2% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 6.4%	0.2%

How Tiebreakers Work

Divisional (East vs. West): each division champion is decided by head-to-head → next-highest team → non-divisional common opponents → strength of schedule, then the two champions meet in the CCG

Some tiebreaker steps involve factors like point differential that cannot be predicted before games are played, leading to uncertain outcomes.