Mountain West Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-09
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Boise StateBOIS | 4-1 | 6-3 | 76.6% | |
| T1 |  San Diego StateSDSU | 4-1 | 7-2 | 69.2% | |
| 3 |  Hawai'iHAW | 4-2 | 7-3 | 11.3% | |
| T4 |  UNLVUNLV | 3-2 | 7-2 | 19.1% | |
| T4 |  Fresno StateFRES | 3-2 | 6-3 | 10.9% | |
| T4 |  New MexicoUNM | 3-2 | 6-3 | 10.7% | |
| T4 |  Utah StateUSU | 3-2 | 5-4 | 1.9% | |
| T8 |  San José StateSJSU | 2-3 | 3-6 | 0.3% | |
| T8 |  WyomingWYO | 2-3 | 4-5 | <0.1% | |
| 10 |  Air ForceAF | 2-4 | 3-6 | - | |
| 11 |  Colorado StateCSU | 1-4 | 2-7 | - | |
| 12 |  NevadaNEV | 0-5 | 1-8 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-09
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-09
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 76.6%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 78.7% (+2.1%) | 75.6% (-1.0%) | |
| 72.9% (-3.8%) | 77.4% (+0.8%) | |
| 76.5% (-0.1%) | 76.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 75.9% (-0.7%) | 78.5% (+1.9%) | |
| 76.0% (-0.7%) | 76.8% (+0.2%) | |
| 96.8% (+20.2%) | 60.7% (-15.9%) |
Best Winner Combination for
WyomingUtah StateAir ForceNevadaNew MexicoBoise StateCCG: 99.0% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Boise StateCCG: 96.8% • Scenario: 44.1%
Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise StateBOIS | 100% | 86.2% | 4.6% | 76.6% |
| San Diego StateSDSU | 100% | 86.8% | 6.9% | 69.2% |
| UNLVUNLV | - | 33.2% | 1.2% | 19.1% |
| Hawai'iHAW | - | 78.8% | 5.7% | 11.3% |
| Fresno StateFRES | - | 41.8% | 1.0% | 10.9% |
| New MexicoUNM | - | 60.5% | 0.9% | 10.7% |
| Utah StateUSU | - | 94.6% | 9.4% | 1.9% |
| San José StateSJSU | - | - | 3.6% | 0.3% |
| WyomingWYO | - | - | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| Air ForceAF | - | - | - | - |
| Colorado StateCSU | - | - | - | - |
| NevadaNEV | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2025-11-09
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise StateBOIS(4-1) | 31.3% | 51.7% | 15.9% | 1.1% | - | - | - | - | 6.1 |
| San Diego StateSDSU(4-1) | 27.6% | 46.2% | 22.9% | 3.4% | - | - | - | - | 6.0 |
| UNLVUNLV(3-2) | - | 56.2% | 35.8% | 7.5% | 0.5% | - | - | - | 5.5 |
| Fresno StateFRES(3-2) | - | 25.1% | 46.0% | 24.8% | 4.2% | - | - | - | 4.9 |
| New MexicoUNM(3-2) | - | 17.0% | 45.4% | 32.1% | 5.5% | - | - | - | 4.7 |
| Hawai'iHAW(4-2) | - | 10.5% | 52.2% | 37.3% | - | - | - | - | 4.7 |
| Utah StateUSU(3-2) | - | 0.9% | 11.0% | 40.0% | 48.0% | - | - | - | 3.6 |
| WyomingWYO(2-3) | - | - | 11.9% | 42.5% | 38.6% | 6.9% | - | - | 3.6 |
| San José StateSJSU(2-3) | - | - | 7.5% | 39.5% | 42.3% | 10.6% | - | - | 3.4 |
| Air ForceAF(2-4) | - | - | - | 23.6% | 50.5% | 25.9% | - | - | 3.0 |
| Colorado StateCSU(1-4) | - | - | - | 0.9% | 12.9% | 47.1% | 39.2% | - | 1.8 |
| NevadaNEV(0-5) | - | - | - | - | 0.7% | 9.6% | 39.3% | 50.4% | 0.6 |
Data from 2025-11-09