Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
19.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | W38-31 | |
| 1 | 8/29 | W38-21 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W30-23 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W41-38 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W31-17 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W51-48 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L31-56 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | L35-40 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | W42-10 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:82% | |
| 13 | 11/21 | Win prob:80% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:85% |
Data from 2025-11-09
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 56.2% | 33.2% |
| 5-3 | 35.8% | 1.2% |
| 4-4 | 7.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-09
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-09
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 24.5% (+5.4%) | 16.6% (-2.5%) | |
| 0.9% (-18.2%) | 23.0% (+3.9%) | |
| 19.1% (+0.0%) | 19.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 17.4% (-1.7%) | 23.7% (+4.6%) | |
| 24.0% (+4.9%) | 17.9% (-1.3%) | |
| 24.5% (+5.4%) | 14.9% (-4.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
WyomingUNLV
UConn
Nevada
Colorado State
Boise StateCCG: 58.7% • Scenario: 0.5%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UNLVBoise StateCCG: 29.4% • Scenario: 36.2%
Data from 2025-11-09
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
33.2%
56.2%Any 1 loss
1.2%
35.8%2.1%
9.9%
1.3%
12.0%
0.6%
13.9%Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-09