Mountain West Conference Tiebreaker Scenarios

Scenarios where tiebreakers determine conference championship game participants

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50 of 53 scenarios

Scenario	CCG Matchup	Probability
8-1 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU	8.3%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 75.9% Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 23.2%	7.3%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 80.3% Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 19.7%	6.5%
8-1 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU	2.7%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 95.2% Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 2.0% Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU 1.7%	2.5%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 66.3% Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM 23.6% New MexicoUNMSan Diego StateSDSU 6.2%	2.3%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU	2.2%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 New MexicoUNM UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM	2.2%
8-1 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES	Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU	1.7%
8-1 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS Hawai'iHAW	CCG participants not 100% certain Hawai'iHAWSan Diego StateSDSU 91.5% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 8.5%	1.6%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU 69.4% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 22.2% Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 8.3%	1.5%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Fresno StateFRES UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 58.8% Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 41.2%	1.5%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS New MexicoUNM UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM	1.4%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Hawai'iHAW San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Hawai'iHAWSan Diego StateSDSU 80.4% Boise StateBOISHawai'iHAW 14.0% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 5.6%	1.4%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 80.9% Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM 11.5% New MexicoUNMSan Diego StateSDSU 7.7%	1.4%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU	Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU	1.3%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Hawai'iHAW San Diego StateSDSU	Boise StateBOISHawai'iHAW	1.2%
8-1 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 Fresno StateFRES UNLVUNLV	Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU	1.1%
7-2 New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain New MexicoUNMSan Diego StateSDSU 77.3% New MexicoUNMUNLVUNLV 22.7%	1.0%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 54.8% Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 45.2%	0.8%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU	0.8%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Fresno StateFRES New MexicoUNM UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM 55.3% Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 44.7%	0.7%
7-2 Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU 73.4% San Diego StateSDSUUNLVUNLV 26.7%	0.7%
8-1 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES Hawai'iHAW	Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU	0.5%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES New MexicoUNM UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM 55.9% Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 34.0% Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 10.0%	0.5%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 97.5% Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU 2.5%	0.5%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Hawai'iHAW New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Hawai'iHAWSan Diego StateSDSU 66.0% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 29.8% New MexicoUNMSan Diego StateSDSU 3.4%	0.4%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES Hawai'iHAW San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Hawai'iHAWSan Diego StateSDSU 52.2% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 17.6% Boise StateBOISHawai'iHAW 12.8%	0.4%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Fresno StateFRES New MexicoUNM	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 93.2% Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM 6.9%	0.4%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Hawai'iHAW New MexicoUNM	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISHawai'iHAW 54.9% Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM 45.1%	0.4%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Fresno StateFRES Hawai'iHAW San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 68.7% Boise StateBOISHawai'iHAW 30.5%	0.4%
7-2 Fresno StateFRES New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain New MexicoUNMSan Diego StateSDSU 88.4% San Diego StateSDSUUNLVUNLV 11.6%	0.3%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES New MexicoUNM	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 90.6% Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM 9.4%	0.3%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Fresno StateFRES Hawai'iHAW	Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES	0.3%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Hawai'iHAW New MexicoUNM	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISHawai'iHAW 72.3% Hawai'iHAWNew MexicoUNM 16.8% Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM 10.9%	0.2%
7-2 Fresno StateFRES New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU 51.7% New MexicoUNMSan Diego StateSDSU 48.3%	0.2%
8-1 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 Fresno StateFRES Hawai'iHAW	Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU	0.2%
7-2 Hawai'iHAW New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Hawai'iHAWSan Diego StateSDSU 87.9% Hawai'iHAWNew MexicoUNM 8.6% New MexicoUNMSan Diego StateSDSU 3.5%	0.2%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Fresno StateFRES Hawai'iHAW New MexicoUNM	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 68.7% Boise StateBOISHawai'iHAW 27.1% Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM 4.2%	0.2%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS San Diego StateSDSU Utah StateUSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUtah StateUSU 93.3% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 3.7% San Diego StateSDSUUtah StateUSU 3.1%	0.2%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES Hawai'iHAW	CCG participants not 100% certain Fresno StateFRESHawai'iHAW 79.0% Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 21.0%	0.1%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES Hawai'iHAW New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Hawai'iHAWSan Diego StateSDSU 49.3% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 43.3% Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU 7.5%	0.1%
7-2 Fresno StateFRES Hawai'iHAW San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Hawai'iHAWSan Diego StateSDSU 84.4% Fresno StateFRESHawai'iHAW 12.5% Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU 3.1%	0.1%
7-2 Fresno StateFRES New MexicoUNM UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain New MexicoUNMUNLVUNLV 67.4% Fresno StateFRESNew MexicoUNM 22.8% Fresno StateFRESUNLVUNLV 9.8%	<0.1%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES Hawai'iHAW New MexicoUNM	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 37.7% Boise StateBOISHawai'iHAW 33.3% Fresno StateFRESHawai'iHAW 27.5%	<0.1%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS New MexicoUNM Utah StateUSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUtah StateUSU 85.5% New MexicoUNMUtah StateUSU 14.5%	<0.1%
7-2 Fresno StateFRES Hawai'iHAW New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Hawai'iHAWSan Diego StateSDSU 85.0% Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU 15.0%	<0.1%
7-2 New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU Utah StateUSU	CCG participants not 100% certain New MexicoUNMUtah StateUSU 83.3% New MexicoUNMSan Diego StateSDSU 16.7%	<0.1%
8-1 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 Hawai'iHAW Utah StateUSU	Hawai'iHAWSan Diego StateSDSU	<0.1%
7-2 Fresno StateFRES Hawai'iHAW New MexicoUNM	Fresno StateFRESHawai'iHAW	<0.1%

How Tiebreakers Work

Head-to-head → CFP rank / computer rankings → Overall winning percentage → Next-highest team → Common conference opponents

Some tiebreaker steps involve factors like point differential that cannot be predicted before games are played, leading to uncertain outcomes.