Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
11.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | W23-20 | |
| 1 | 8/30 | L6-40 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W37-20 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W23-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L21-23 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W44-35 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W44-26 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W31-19 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | L38-45 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | W38-6 | |
| 13 | 11/21 | Win prob:20% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:53% |
Data from 2025-11-09
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 10.5% | 78.8% |
| 5-3 | 52.2% | 5.7% |
| 4-4 | 37.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-09
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-09
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 14.2% (+3.0%) | 9.9% (-1.4%) | |
| 13.8% (+2.5%) | 10.7% (-0.5%) | |
| 11.5% (+0.3%) | 11.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 12.2% (+0.9%) | 8.8% (-2.5%) | |
| 13.1% (+1.8%) | 10.8% (-0.5%) | |
| 10.4% (-0.9%) | 11.9% (+0.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Wyoming
Utah State
Air Force
San José State
Colorado State
Boise StateCCG: 32.7% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
WyomingCCG: 14.2% • Scenario: 31.7%
Data from 2025-11-09
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
78.8%
10.5%Any 1 loss
5.7%
52.2%14.4%
9.3%
3.9%
42.9%Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-09