American Athletic Conference Tiebreaker Scenarios

Scenarios where tiebreakers determine conference championship game participants

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42 of 42 scenarios

Scenario	CCG Matchup	Probability
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 76.2% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 23.8%	3.7%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 68.0% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 32.0%	3.6%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 41.1% South FloridaUSFTulaneTULN 36.0% North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 14.0%	1.6%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 East CarolinaECU North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain South FloridaUSFTulaneTULN 48.7% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 19.2% North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 19.0%	1.5%
8-1 East CarolinaECU North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 64.4% East CarolinaECUTulaneTULN 31.9% East CarolinaECUNorth TexasUNT 3.8%	1.4%
8-1 East CarolinaECU 7-2 NavyNAVY North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain East CarolinaECUNavyNAVY 56.0% East CarolinaECUNorth TexasUNT 33.3% East CarolinaECUTulaneTULN 5.9%	0.6%
8-1 East CarolinaECU 7-2 North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain East CarolinaECUNorth TexasUNT 44.5% East CarolinaECUNavyNAVY 33.6% East CarolinaECUTulaneTULN 14.4%	0.6%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 60.2% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 39.8%	0.5%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 NavyNAVY South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 66.2% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 33.8%	0.5%
7-2 East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 55.0% NavyNAVYSouth FloridaUSF 17.5% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 17.1%	0.5%
7-2 East CarolinaECU North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 46.6% NavyNAVYSouth FloridaUSF 19.9% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 19.2%	0.4%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 97.9% North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 2.1%	0.4%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 98.2% North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 1.8%	0.3%
8-1 East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT	0.3%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 NavyNAVY North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain South FloridaUSFTulaneTULN 44.8% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 41.8% North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 13.4%	0.2%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain South FloridaUSFTulaneTULN 62.2% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 20.6% North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 17.3%	0.2%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY North TexasUNT	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 48.1% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 42.0% East CarolinaECUTulaneTULN 9.9%	0.2%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 East CarolinaECU North TexasUNT	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 64.8% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 21.1% East CarolinaECUTulaneTULN 14.1%	0.1%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 72.7% NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 27.4%	0.1%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 56.9% NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 43.1%	0.1%
8-1 NavyNAVY 7-2 East CarolinaECU North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 95.5% NavyNAVYSouth FloridaUSF 4.5%	<0.1%
8-1 East CarolinaECU 7-2 North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain East CarolinaECUNorth TexasUNT 64.0% East CarolinaECUNavyNAVY 24.0% East CarolinaECUTulaneTULN 12.0%	<0.1%
7-2 North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 40.9% NavyNAVYSouth FloridaUSF 36.4% NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 21.2%	<0.1%
7-2 East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 84.2% East CarolinaECUNavyNAVY 7.0% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 5.3%	<0.1%
8-1 East CarolinaECU 7-2 NavyNAVY North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain East CarolinaECUNavyNAVY 46.8% East CarolinaECUNorth TexasUNT 38.3% East CarolinaECUTulaneTULN 14.9%	<0.1%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT	<0.1%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 East CarolinaECU South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain East CarolinaECUTulaneTULN 39.6% South FloridaUSFTulaneTULN 39.6% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 20.8%	<0.1%
7-2 East CarolinaECU North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 84.8% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 6.5% East CarolinaECUNavyNAVY 4.3%	<0.1%
7-2 NavyNAVY North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 55.8% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 23.1% NavyNAVYSouth FloridaUSF 21.1%	<0.1%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 45.2% East CarolinaECUTulaneTULN 35.7% South FloridaUSFTulaneTULN 19.1%	<0.1%
8-1 NavyNAVY North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT	<0.1%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 NavyNAVY South FloridaUSF	NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT	<0.1%
7-2 East CarolinaECU South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 62.5% NavyNAVYSouth FloridaUSF 25.0% East CarolinaECUTulaneTULN 12.5%	<0.1%
8-1 East CarolinaECU 7-2 North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain East CarolinaECUNorth TexasUNT 81.8% East CarolinaECUSouth FloridaUSF 13.6% East CarolinaECUNavyNAVY 4.5%	<0.1%
7-2 East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 59.1% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 22.7% NavyNAVYSouth FloridaUSF 13.6%	<0.1%
8-1 East CarolinaECU 7-2 South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain East CarolinaECUNavyNAVY 50.0% East CarolinaECUTulaneTULN 44.4% East CarolinaECUSouth FloridaUSF 5.6%	<0.1%
8-1 East CarolinaECU 7-2 NavyNAVY North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain East CarolinaECUNorth TexasUNT 47.6% East CarolinaECUNavyNAVY 42.9% East CarolinaECUSouth FloridaUSF 9.5%	<0.1%
7-2 East CarolinaECU North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 56.3% NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 37.5% NavyNAVYSouth FloridaUSF 6.3%	<0.1%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 NavyNAVY North TexasUNT	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 77.3% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 22.7%	<0.1%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY	NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT	<0.1%
7-2 East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYSouth FloridaUSF 69.2% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 7.7% East CarolinaECUNavyNAVY 7.7%	<0.1%
8-1 East CarolinaECU 7-2 NavyNAVY South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain East CarolinaECUNavyNAVY 80.0% East CarolinaECUTulaneTULN 20.0%	<0.1%

How Tiebreakers Work

Head-to-head → CFP rank / computer rankings → Common conference opponents → Overall winning percentage

Some tiebreaker steps involve factors like point differential that cannot be predicted before games are played, leading to uncertain outcomes.