American Athletic Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-16
Conference Standings
| 1 |  NavyNAVY | 6-1 | 8-2 | 27.9% | |
| T2 |  North TexasUNT | 5-1 | 9-1 | 81.6% | |
| T2 |  TulaneTULN | 5-1 | 8-2 | 61.5% | |
| T2 |  East CarolinaECU | 5-1 | 7-3 | 24.3% | |
| 5 |  South FloridaUSF | 4-2 | 7-3 | 4.7% | |
| 6 |  MemphisMEM | 4-3 | 8-3 | - | |
| T7 |  ArmyARMY | 3-3 | 5-4 | - | |
| T7 |  TempleTEM | 3-3 | 5-5 | - | |
| T7 |  UTSAUTSA | 3-3 | 5-5 | - | |
| 10 |  Florida AtlanticFAU | 3-4 | 4-6 | - | |
| 11 |  RiceRICE | 2-4 | 5-5 | - | |
| 12 |  UABUAB | 1-5 | 3-7 | - | |
| T13 |  CharlotteCLT | 0-7 | 1-9 | - | |
| T13 |  TulsaTLSA | 0-6 | 3-7 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-16
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-11-16
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-16
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 81.6%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 78.0% (-3.6%) | 94.4% (+12.8%) | |
| 74.7% (-6.9%) | 92.4% (+10.8%) | |
| 86.1% (+4.5%) | 16.0% (-65.6%) | |
| 81.5% (-0.1%) | 83.6% (+2.0%) | |
| 80.7% (-0.9%) | 81.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 80.3% (-1.3%) | 81.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 81.6% (+0.0%) | 81.5% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
TempleUABCharlotteCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UTSANorth TexasCCG: 96.6% • Scenario: 36.4%
Ways for to Clinch CCG Spot This Week
TempleUTSAUABFlorida AtlanticData from 2025-11-16
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-1 | 7-1 | 7-2 | 6-2 | 6-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North TexasUNT | - | 89.9% | - | 20.3% | - | 81.6% |
| TulaneTULN | - | 81.2% | - | 0.9% | - | 61.5% |
| NavyNAVY | 100% | - | 32.3% | - | 9.6% | 27.9% |
| East CarolinaECU | - | 45.9% | - | 1.2% | - | 24.3% |
| South FloridaUSF | - | - | - | 5.1% | - | 4.7% |
| ArmyARMY | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CharlotteCLT | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Florida AtlanticFAU | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| MemphisMEM | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| RiceRICE | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| TempleTEM | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| TulsaTLSA | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UABUAB | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UTSAUTSA | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2025-11-16
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-1 | 7-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 6-2 | 5-4 | 5-3 | 4-5 | 4-4 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North TexasUNT(5-1) | - | 88.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.5% | - | 0.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 6.9 |
| TulaneTULN(5-1) | - | 75.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 23.7% | - | 0.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 6.7 |
| NavyNAVY(6-1) | 8.7% | 0.0% | 45.9% | 45.5% | 0.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 6.6 |
| East CarolinaECU(5-1) | - | 51.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 42.0% | - | 6.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 6.5 |
| South FloridaUSF(4-2) | - | - | - | 0.0% | 90.7% | 0.0% | 9.1% | - | 0.2% | - | - | - | - | - | 5.9 |
| ArmyARMY(3-3) | - | - | - | 28.1% | - | 48.9% | 0.0% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | - | - | - | 5.0 |
| MemphisMEM(4-3) | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 79.8% | - | 20.2% | - | - | - | - | - | 4.8 |
| UTSAUTSA(3-3) | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 18.8% | 0.0% | 49.9% | - | 31.3% | - | - | - | 3.9 |
| TempleTEM(3-3) | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 25.1% | - | 73.6% | - | - | - | 3.3 |
| Florida AtlanticFAU(3-4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 15.2% | - | 84.8% | - | - | - | 3.2 |
| RiceRICE(2-4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 8.8% | 91.0% | - | - | 2.1 |
| UABUAB(1-5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 4.5% | 65.5% | 30.0% | - | 1.7 |
| TulsaTLSA(0-6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1.3% | 33.7% | 65.1% | 0.4 |
| CharlotteCLT(0-7) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 3.4% | 96.6% | 0.0 |
Data from 2025-11-16