Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
27.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W52-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W38-24 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W42-23 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W21-13 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W34-31 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W32-31 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W42-32 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | L17-31 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | L10-49 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | W41-38 | |
| 14 | 11/27 | Win prob:20% | |
| 12/13 | Win prob:43% |
Data from 2025-11-16
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 8.7% | 100.0% |
| 7-2 | 45.9% | 32.3% |
| 6-3 | 45.5% | 9.6% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-16
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-16
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 21.2% (-6.7%) | 51.7% (+23.8%) | |
| 24.4% (-3.4%) | 33.2% (+5.3%) | |
| 27.2% (-0.7%) | 38.0% (+10.2%) | |
| 27.6% (-0.2%) | 30.8% (+2.9%) | |
| 29.4% (+1.6%) | 27.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 32.0% (+4.2%) | 27.7% (-0.2%) | |
| 28.0% (+0.1%) | 27.3% (-0.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Temple
UTSA
UABCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.5%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TempleCCG: 51.7% • Scenario: 21.8%
Ways for to Clinch 
CCG Spot This Week
TempleUTSAUABTempleUTSA
TulsaData from 2025-11-16
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
8.7%Any 1 loss
32.3%
45.9%
99.6%
11.5%
9.8%
34.4%9.6%
45.5%Data from 2025-11-16
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-16