Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
61.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W23-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W33-31 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W34-27 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L10-45 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W31-14 | |
| 7 | 10/09 | W26-19 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W24-17 | |
| 10 | 10/30 | L26-48 | |
| 11 | 11/07 | W38-32 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | W35-24 | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:78% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:97% |
Data from 2025-11-16
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 75.5% | 81.2% |
| 6-2 | 23.7% | 0.9% |
| 5-3 | 0.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-16
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-16
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 78.5% (+16.9%) | 0.9% (-60.7%) | |
| 61.0% (-0.5%) | 62.3% (+0.8%) | |
| 60.6% (-0.9%) | 75.4% (+13.9%) | |
| 61.6% (+0.0%) | 61.1% (-0.5%) | |
| 61.6% (+0.1%) | 61.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 43.6% (-18.0%) | 62.3% (+0.8%) | |
| 61.5% (-0.0%) | 61.7% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Rice
UAB
CharlotteCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Tulane
ArmyCCG: 79.5% • Scenario: 74.9%
Data from 2025-11-16
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
81.2%
75.5%Any 1 loss
0.9%
23.7%1.1%
2.6%
0.9%
21.1%Data from 2025-11-16
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-16