Big Ten

Big Ten Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-16

Big TenConference Standings

T1IndianaIU8-011-099.8%
T1Ohio StOSU7-010-081.5%
T3OregonORE6-19-112.4%
T3USCUSC6-18-24.3%
T3MichiganMICH6-18-22.0%
T6IllinoisILL4-37-3-
T6IowaIOWA4-36-4-
T6MinnesotaMINN4-36-4-
T6NebraskaNEB4-37-3-
T6WashingtonWASH4-37-3-
T11NorthwesternNU3-45-5-
T11UCLAUCLA3-43-7-
13RutgersRUTG2-55-5-
T14MarylandMD1-64-6-
T14Penn StPSU1-64-6-
T14WisconsinWIS1-63-7-
T17Michigan StMSU0-73-7-
T17PurduePUR0-82-9-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-16 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Big Ten CCG Matchups

181.4%
IndianaIU
vs
OSUOhio St
212.2%
IndianaIU
vs
OREOregon
34.3%
IndianaIU
vs
USCUSC
41.9%
IndianaIU
vs
MICHMichigan
50.1%
Ohio StOSU
vs
OREOregon
6<0.1%
MichiganMICH
vs
OREOregon
7<0.1%
MichiganMICH
vs
USCUSC
8<0.1%
Ohio StOSU
vs
USCUSC
9<0.1%
MichiganMICH
vs
OSUOhio St

Data from 2025-11-16 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10Week 11Week 12Week 13

Data from 2025-11-16 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Big Ten CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 99.8%
Game
IndianaCCG OddsAway
IndianaCCG OddsHome
WashingtonWASH@UCLAUCLA
99.8%
(+0.0%)		99.8%
(+0.0%)
USCUSC@OregonORE
99.8%
(+0.0%)		99.8%
(-0.0%)
MichiganMICH@MarylandMD
99.8%
(-0.0%)		99.9%
(+0.1%)
NebraskaNEB@Penn StPSU
99.7%
(-0.1%)		99.8%
(+0.0%)
IllinoisILL@WisconsinWIS
99.8%
(+0.0%)		99.8%
(-0.0%)
MinnesotaMINN@NorthwesternNU
99.8%
(+0.0%)		99.8%
(-0.0%)
Michigan StMSU@IowaIOWA
99.8%
(+0.0%)		99.8%
(+0.0%)
RutgersRUTG@Ohio StOSU
99.2%
(-0.5%)		99.8%
(+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for Indiana

USCUSCMarylandMaryland

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 3.9%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Indiana

USCUSCPenn StPenn StateOhio StOhio State

CCG: 99.9% • Scenario: 21.5%

Ways for Indiana to Clinch Big Ten CCG Spot This Week

USCUSCMarylandMaryland
3.9%
UCLAUCLAUSCUSCPenn StPenn StateIllinoisIllinois
2.4%
UCLAUCLAUSCUSCPenn StPenn StateMinnesotaMinnesotaOhio StOhio State
1.9%
UCLAUCLAUSCUSCIllinoisIllinoisNorthwesternNorthwestern
1.5%
IllinoisIllinoisMinnesotaMinnesotaMichigan StMichigan State
0.9%
WashingtonWashingtonMarylandMarylandNebraskaNebraskaIllinoisIllinois
0.9%
MarylandMarylandNebraskaNebraskaNorthwesternNorthwestern
0.9%
UCLAUCLAUSCUSCWisconsinWisconsinMinnesotaMinnesotaOhio StOhio State
0.8%
UCLAUCLAMarylandMarylandPenn StPenn StateIllinoisIllinoisMinnesotaMinnesota
0.8%
UCLAUCLAMarylandMarylandWisconsinWisconsinNorthwesternNorthwestern
0.5%

+23 more clinching scenarios

Data from 2025-11-16 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-17-2Overall
IndianaIU100%81.8%-99.8%
Ohio StOSU100%5.2%-81.5%
OregonORE-19.3%<0.1%12.4%
USCUSC-18.0%-4.3%
MichiganMICH-13.2%-2.0%
IllinoisILL----
IowaIOWA----
MarylandMD----
Michigan StMSU----
MinnesotaMINN----
NebraskaNEB----
NorthwesternNU----
Penn StPSU----
PurduePUR----
RutgersRUTG----
UCLAUCLA----
WashingtonWASH----
WisconsinWIS----

Data from 2025-11-16 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-17-26-35-44-53-62-71-80-9Avg Wins
IndianaIU(8-0)98.8%1.2%--------9.0
Ohio StOSU(7-0)80.5%19.2%0.3%-------8.8
OregonORE(6-1)-63.9%32.3%3.8%------7.6
USCUSC(6-1)-23.9%73.7%2.5%------7.2
MichiganMICH(6-1)-15.3%71.7%13.0%------7.0
IowaIOWA(4-3)---74.6%24.8%0.7%----5.7
IllinoisILL(4-3)---43.5%45.1%11.5%----5.3
MinnesotaMINN(4-3)---32.5%50.0%17.5%----5.2
WashingtonWASH(4-3)---12.4%72.3%15.3%----5.0
NebraskaNEB(4-3)---2.7%29.3%68.1%----4.3
NorthwesternNU(3-4)----15.4%50.1%34.5%---3.8
UCLAUCLA(3-4)----0.6%20.3%79.2%---3.2
Penn StPSU(1-6)------82.0%17.2%0.9%-2.8
RutgersRUTG(2-5)-----0.1%8.8%91.1%--2.1
MarylandMD(1-6)------10.2%59.6%30.2%-1.8
WisconsinWIS(1-6)------13.0%46.1%40.9%-1.7
Michigan StMSU(0-7)-------1.1%36.7%62.2%0.4
PurduePUR(0-8)--------1.2%98.8%0.0

Data from 2025-11-16 • SportsSimulate.com