Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
12.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W59-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W69-3 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W34-14 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W41-7 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W30-24 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L20-30 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W56-10 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W21-7 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | W18-16 | |
| 12 | 11/14 | W42-13 | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:75% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:85% |
Data from 2025-11-16
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 63.9% | 19.3% |
| 7-2 | 32.3% | 0.0% |
| 6-3 | 3.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-16
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 12.4% (+0.0%) | 12.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.0% (-12.4%) | 16.4% (+4.0%) | |
| 12.4% (+0.0%) | 12.2% (-0.2%) | |
| 12.3% (-0.0%) | 12.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 12.3% (-0.0%) | 12.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 12.4% (+0.0%) | 12.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 12.8% (+0.4%) | 12.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 62.4% (+50.0%) | 11.6% (-0.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UCLAOregon
Nebraska
RutgersCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OregonCCG: 16.4% • Scenario: 75.3%
Data from 2025-11-16
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
19.3%
63.9%Data from 2025-11-16
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-16