Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
4.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W73-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W59-20 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W33-17 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W45-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L32-34 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W31-13 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L24-34 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W21-17 | |
| 11 | 11/07 | W38-17 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | W26-21 | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:25% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:97% |
Data from 2025-11-16
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 23.9% | 18.0% |
| 7-2 | 73.7% | 0% |
| 6-3 | 2.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-16
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 4.4% (+0.1%) | 4.0% (-0.3%) | |
| 17.4% (+13.1%) | 0.0% (-4.3%) | |
| 4.3% (-0.0%) | 4.5% (+0.2%) | |
| 4.0% (-0.3%) | 4.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.3% (-0.1%) | 4.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 4.2% (-0.1%) | 4.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 3.9% (-0.4%) | 4.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.9% (+0.6%) | 4.3% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UCLAUSC
Maryland
Nebraska
Minnesota
Michigan StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
USCCCG: 17.4% • Scenario: 24.7%
Data from 2025-11-16
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
18.0%
23.9%Data from 2025-11-16
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-16