Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
99.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W27-14 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W56-9 | |
| 3 | 9/12 | W73-0 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W63-10 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W20-15 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W30-20 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W38-13 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W56-6 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W55-10 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | W27-24 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | W31-7 | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:99% |
Data from 2025-11-16
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 98.8% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 1.2% | 81.8% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-16
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-16
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 99.8% (+0.0%) | 99.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 99.8% (+0.0%) | 99.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 99.8% (-0.0%) | 99.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 99.7% (-0.1%) | 99.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 99.8% (+0.0%) | 99.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 99.8% (+0.0%) | 99.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 99.8% (+0.0%) | 99.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 99.2% (-0.5%) | 99.8% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
USC
MarylandCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 3.9%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
USC
Penn State
Ohio StateCCG: 99.9% • Scenario: 21.5%
Ways for to Clinch 
CCG Spot This Week
USCMaryland
UCLAUSCPenn State
IllinoisUCLAUSCPenn State
MinnesotaOhio StateUCLAUSCIllinois
NorthwesternIllinoisMinnesota
Michigan State
WashingtonMaryland
NebraskaIllinoisMarylandNebraskaNorthwesternUCLAUSC
WisconsinMinnesotaOhio StateUCLAMarylandPenn StateIllinoisMinnesotaUCLAMarylandWisconsinNorthwestern+23 more clinching scenarios
Data from 2025-11-16
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
98.8%
81.8%
1.2%Data from 2025-11-16
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-16