Conference USA Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-16
Conference Standings
| 1 |  Jacksonville StateJXST | 6-0 | 7-3 | 93.0% | |
| 2 |  Western KentuckyWKU | 6-1 | 8-2 | 55.3% | |
| T3 |  Kennesaw StateKENN | 5-1 | 7-3 | 33.7% | |
| T3 |  Missouri StateMOST | 5-1 | 7-3 | 18.1% | |
| T5 |  Florida InternationalFIU | 3-3 | 5-5 | - | |
| T5 |  LibertyLIB | 3-3 | 4-6 | - | |
| T5 |  Louisiana TechLT | 3-3 | 5-5 | - | |
| 8 |  DelawareDEL | 3-4 | 5-5 | - | |
| T9 |  New Mexico StateNMSU | 1-5 | 3-7 | - | |
| T9 |  Sam HoustonSHSU | 1-5 | 2-8 | - | |
| T9 |  UTEPUTEP | 1-5 | 2-8 | - | |
| 12 |  Middle TennesseeMTSU | 0-6 | 1-9 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-16
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-11-16
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-16
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 93.0%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 90.6% (-2.4%) | 94.5% (+1.5%) | |
| 96.3% (+3.4%) | 84.9% (-8.1%) | |
| 93.0% (-0.0%) | 93.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 93.0% (+0.0%) | 93.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 93.1% (+0.1%) | 92.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 93.1% (+0.2%) | 92.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 92.9% (-0.1%) | 93.0% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Kennesaw StateJacksonville State
Wake ForestWestern KentuckyNew Mexico StateSam HoustonLouisiana TechCCG: 98.8% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Jacksonville StateCCG: 96.3% • Scenario: 70.5%
Data from 2025-11-16
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST | 100% | 93.6% | 42.2% | 93.0% |
| Western KentuckyWKU | - | 98.0% | 40.1% | 55.3% |
| Kennesaw StateKENN | - | 90.8% | 33.0% | 33.7% |
| Missouri StateMOST | - | 90.5% | 5.8% | 18.1% |
| DelawareDEL | - | - | - | - |
| Florida InternationalFIU | - | - | - | - |
| LibertyLIB | - | - | - | - |
| Louisiana TechLT | - | - | - | - |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | - | - | - | - |
| New Mexico StateNMSU | - | - | - | - |
| Sam HoustonSHSU | - | - | - | - |
| UTEPUTEP | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2025-11-16
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST(6-0) | 52.1% | 40.2% | 7.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | 7.4 |
| Western KentuckyWKU(6-1) | - | 26.1% | 73.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | 6.3 |
| Kennesaw StateKENN(5-1) | - | 17.2% | 54.6% | 28.1% | - | - | - | - | - | 5.9 |
| Missouri StateMOST(5-1) | - | 16.9% | 48.3% | 34.8% | - | - | - | - | - | 5.8 |
| LibertyLIB(3-3) | - | - | - | 32.9% | 52.0% | 15.2% | - | - | - | 4.2 |
| Louisiana TechLT(3-3) | - | - | - | 31.0% | 49.2% | 19.9% | - | - | - | 4.1 |
| Florida InternationalFIU(3-3) | - | - | - | 23.4% | 62.2% | 14.5% | - | - | - | 4.1 |
| DelawareDEL(3-4) | - | - | - | - | 76.7% | 23.3% | - | - | - | 3.8 |
| New Mexico StateNMSU(1-5) | - | - | - | - | - | 25.1% | 54.4% | 20.5% | - | 2.0 |
| UTEPUTEP(1-5) | - | - | - | - | - | 14.5% | 56.5% | 29.0% | - | 1.9 |
| Sam HoustonSHSU(1-5) | - | - | - | - | - | 6.9% | 40.6% | 52.5% | - | 1.5 |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU(0-6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 21.9% | 55.4% | 22.7% | 1.0 |
Data from 2025-11-16