Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
33.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L9-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L9-56 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W27-13 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W28-21 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W24-16 | |
| 7 | 10/09 | W35-7 | |
| 8 | 10/21 | W45-26 | |
| 9 | 10/28 | W33-20 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | W24-21 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | L26-35 | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:61% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:28% |
Data from 2025-11-16
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 17.2% | 90.8% |
| 6-2 | 54.6% | 33.0% |
| 5-3 | 28.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-16
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
91.4%
8.6%
Data from 2025-11-16
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 3.8% (-29.9%) | 52.8% (+19.1%) | |
| 32.4% (-1.3%) | 36.7% (+3.0%) | |
| 33.6% (-0.1%) | 33.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 33.0% (-0.7%) | 33.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 33.5% (-0.2%) | 33.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 33.7% (+0.0%) | 33.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 33.7% (+0.0%) | 33.7% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Kennesaw State
Florida International
Delaware
Western Kentucky
New Mexico State
Sam Houston
Louisiana TechCCG: 69.6% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Kennesaw StateCCG: 52.8% • Scenario: 61.0%
Data from 2025-11-16
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
90.8%
17.2%Any 1 loss
33.0%
54.6%
37.8%
43.8%
13.7%
10.8%Data from 2025-11-16
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-16