Conference USA Tiebreaker Scenarios

Scenarios where tiebreakers determine conference championship game participants

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11 of 11 scenarios

Scenario	CCG Matchup	Probability
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 50.2% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 49.8%	13.0%
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 46.7% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 45.1% Jacksonville StateJXSTMissouri StateMOST 8.2%	12.9%
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU	8.3%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 50.4% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 49.6%	5.5%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 46.3% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 45.5% Jacksonville StateJXSTMissouri StateMOST 8.2%	5.5%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU	3.5%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 50.4% Missouri StateMOSTWestern KentuckyWKU 49.5%	2.2%
8-1 Western KentuckyWKU 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Kennesaw StateKENN	Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU	2.0%
8-1 Western KentuckyWKU 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Kennesaw StateKENN Missouri StateMOST	CCG participants not 100% certain Missouri StateMOSTWestern KentuckyWKU 38.4% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 35.1% Kennesaw StateKENNWestern KentuckyWKU 26.5%	1.9%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST Kennesaw StateKENN Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 49.3% Kennesaw StateKENNWestern KentuckyWKU 33.6% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 17.1%	1.8%
8-1 Western KentuckyWKU 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Missouri StateMOST	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 52.9% Missouri StateMOSTWestern KentuckyWKU 47.0%	1.2%

How Tiebreakers Work

Head-to-head → CFP rank → Computer rankings composite → Academic Progress Rate

Some tiebreaker steps involve factors like point differential that cannot be predicted before games are played, leading to uncertain outcomes.