Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
55.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | W41-24 | |
| 1 | 8/30 | W55-6 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L21-45 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W31-16 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W27-22 | |
| 6 | 10/03 | W27-24 | |
| 7 | 10/14 | L6-25 | |
| 8 | 10/21 | W28-27 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W35-16 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | W42-26 | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:11% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:26% |
Data from 2025-11-16
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 26.1% | 98.0% |
| 6-2 | 73.9% | 40.1% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-16
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-16
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 60.4% (+5.1%) | 52.0% (-3.3%) | |
| 55.0% (-0.2%) | 55.8% (+0.6%) | |
| 55.4% (+0.2%) | 55.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 56.0% (+0.8%) | 55.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 55.4% (+0.1%) | 55.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 55.0% (-0.2%) | 55.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 55.2% (-0.1%) | 55.3% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Missouri State
Jacksonville State
DelawareWestern Kentucky
New Mexico State
Sam Houston
Louisiana TechCCG: 70.6% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Missouri StateCCG: 60.4% • Scenario: 39.0%
Data from 2025-11-16
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
98.5%
2.9%Any 1 loss
83.1%
31.4%
97.9%
23.2%41.0%
8.2%40.0%
65.7%Data from 2025-11-16
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-16