Mountain West Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-16
Conference Standings
| 1 |  San Diego StateSDSU | 5-1 | 8-2 | 74.4% | |
| T2 |  Boise StateBOIS | 4-2 | 6-4 | 57.9% | |
| T2 |  UNLVUNLV | 4-2 | 8-2 | 25.7% | |
| T2 |  New MexicoUNM | 4-2 | 7-3 | 15.5% | |
| T2 |  Hawai'iHAW | 4-2 | 7-3 | 14.1% | |
| T2 |  Fresno StateFRES | 4-2 | 7-3 | 11.3% | |
| 7 |  Utah StateUSU | 3-3 | 5-5 | 1.2% | |
| T8 |  Air ForceAF | 2-4 | 3-7 | - | |
| T8 |  San José StateSJSU | 2-4 | 3-7 | - | |
| T8 |  WyomingWYO | 2-4 | 4-6 | - | |
| T11 |  Colorado StateCSU | 1-5 | 2-8 | - | |
| T11 |  NevadaNEV | 1-5 | 2-8 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-16
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-11-16
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-16
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 74.4%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 80.8% (+6.4%) | 73.9% (-0.5%) | |
| 71.5% (-2.9%) | 74.8% (+0.4%) | |
| 80.0% (+5.6%) | 72.4% (-2.0%) | |
| 74.3% (-0.0%) | 74.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 43.6% (-30.8%) | 87.7% (+13.4%) | |
| 59.1% (-15.3%) | 82.9% (+8.6%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Colorado StateAir ForceSan Diego StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 2.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
San Diego StateFresno StateCCG: 98.6% • Scenario: 44.6%
Ways for to Clinch CCG Spot This Week
WyomingUNLVSan Diego StateFresno StateWyomingNew MexicoSan Diego StateFresno StateUNLVAir ForceSan Diego StateFresno StateHawai'iNew MexicoSan Diego StateFresno StateColorado StateSan Diego StateFresno StateNevadaAir ForceSan Diego StateFresno StateColorado StateAir ForceSan Diego StateNevadaHawai'iSan Diego StateFresno StateData from 2025-11-16
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego StateSDSU | 100% | 81.8% | 3.2% | 74.4% |
| Boise StateBOIS | - | 88.9% | 2.8% | 57.9% |
| UNLVUNLV | - | 37.4% | 0.2% | 25.7% |
| New MexicoUNM | - | 53.2% | 0.3% | 15.5% |
| Hawai'iHAW | - | 65.5% | 3.6% | 14.1% |
| Fresno StateFRES | - | 33.4% | 0.1% | 11.3% |
| Utah StateUSU | - | - | 10.4% | 1.2% |
| Air ForceAF | - | - | - | - |
| Colorado StateCSU | - | - | - | - |
| NevadaNEV | - | - | - | - |
| San José StateSJSU | - | - | - | - |
| WyomingWYO | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2025-11-16
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego StateSDSU(5-1) | 31.5% | 51.7% | 16.8% | - | - | - | - | 6.1 |
| UNLVUNLV(4-2) | - | 68.6% | 29.5% | 1.9% | - | - | - | 5.7 |
| Boise StateBOIS(4-2) | - | 64.1% | 33.7% | 2.3% | - | - | - | 5.6 |
| Fresno StateFRES(4-2) | - | 33.7% | 49.4% | 17.0% | - | - | - | 5.2 |
| New MexicoUNM(4-2) | - | 28.9% | 49.7% | 21.4% | - | - | - | 5.1 |
| Hawai'iHAW(4-2) | - | 18.3% | 59.4% | 22.4% | - | - | - | 5.0 |
| Utah StateUSU(3-3) | - | - | 11.2% | 44.6% | 44.1% | - | - | 3.7 |
| WyomingWYO(2-4) | - | - | - | 26.5% | 64.7% | 8.8% | - | 3.2 |
| Air ForceAF(2-4) | - | - | - | 31.1% | 51.1% | 17.8% | - | 3.1 |
| San José StateSJSU(2-4) | - | - | - | 14.3% | 48.9% | 36.8% | - | 2.8 |
| Colorado StateCSU(1-5) | - | - | - | - | 2.4% | 36.6% | 61.0% | 1.4 |
| NevadaNEV(1-5) | - | - | - | - | 0.9% | 18.0% | 81.2% | 1.2 |
Data from 2025-11-16