Mountain West Conference Tiebreaker Scenarios

Scenarios where tiebreakers determine conference championship game participants

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34 of 34 scenarios

Scenario	CCG Matchup	Probability
8-1 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU	9.2%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 62.0% Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 38.0%	9.2%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 50.7% Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM 49.3%	5.8%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU	4.7%
8-1 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU	4.6%
7-2 New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain New MexicoUNMUNLVUNLV 51.9% New MexicoUNMSan Diego StateSDSU 48.1%	3.2%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU	3.0%
7-2 Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain San Diego StateSDSUUNLVUNLV 57.2% Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU 42.8%	2.7%
8-1 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 Fresno StateFRES UNLVUNLV	Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU	2.6%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS New MexicoUNM UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM	2.5%
8-1 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS Hawai'iHAW	CCG participants not 100% certain Hawai'iHAWSan Diego StateSDSU 70.5% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 29.5%	2.5%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Hawai'iHAW San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Hawai'iHAWSan Diego StateSDSU 60.1% Boise StateBOISHawai'iHAW 28.2% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 11.7%	2.4%
7-2 Fresno StateFRES New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain New MexicoUNMSan Diego StateSDSU 71.7% San Diego StateSDSUUNLVUNLV 28.3%	1.7%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Hawai'iHAW New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 98.3% Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM 1.8%	1.6%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES New MexicoUNM UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM 72.4% Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 27.6%	1.3%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES Hawai'iHAW San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISHawai'iHAW 34.5% Hawai'iHAWSan Diego StateSDSU 29.6% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 28.4%	1.2%
8-1 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES Hawai'iHAW	Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU	1.2%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV	1.1%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 90.7% Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM 9.3%	1.1%
8-1 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES	Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU	0.9%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU	Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU	0.9%
7-2 Hawai'iHAW New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Hawai'iHAWSan Diego StateSDSU 78.8% Hawai'iHAWNew MexicoUNM 13.5% New MexicoUNMSan Diego StateSDSU 7.7%	0.9%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES Hawai'iHAW New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU	Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU	0.8%
7-2 Fresno StateFRES New MexicoUNM UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain New MexicoUNMUNLVUNLV 72.4% Fresno StateFRESUNLVUNLV 27.6%	0.8%
7-2 Fresno StateFRES Hawai'iHAW San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Hawai'iHAWSan Diego StateSDSU 94.6% Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU 4.8%	0.7%
8-1 San Diego StateSDSU 7-2 Fresno StateFRES Hawai'iHAW	Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU	0.7%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Hawai'iHAW New MexicoUNM	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISHawai'iHAW 61.8% Hawai'iHAWNew MexicoUNM 22.1% Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM 16.1%	0.7%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU	Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU	0.6%
7-2 Fresno StateFRES Hawai'iHAW New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Hawai'iHAWSan Diego StateSDSU 89.5% Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU 10.5%	0.5%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES Hawai'iHAW New MexicoUNM	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISHawai'iHAW 49.5% Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 45.2% Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM 5.4%	0.4%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES Hawai'iHAW	CCG participants not 100% certain Fresno StateFRESHawai'iHAW 81.3% Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 18.7%	0.3%
7-2 Fresno StateFRES New MexicoUNM San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU 64.2% New MexicoUNMSan Diego StateSDSU 35.8%	0.3%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES New MexicoUNM	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 97.5% Boise StateBOISNew MexicoUNM 2.5%	0.2%
7-2 Fresno StateFRES Hawai'iHAW New MexicoUNM	Fresno StateFRESHawai'iHAW	0.2%

How Tiebreakers Work

Head-to-head → CFP rank / computer rankings → Overall winning percentage → Next-highest team → Common conference opponents

Some tiebreaker steps involve factors like point differential that cannot be predicted before games are played, leading to uncertain outcomes.