UNLVRebels

8-2 T2nd (4-2) in MWC

Data from 2025-11-16 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

25.7%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
0	8/23	vsIdaho StateIDST	W38-31
1	8/29	vsSam HoustonSHSU(N)	W38-21
2	9/06	vsUCLAUCLA	W30-23
4	9/20	@Miami (OH)M-OH	W41-38
6	10/04	@WyomingWYO	W31-17
7	10/11	vsAir ForceAF	W51-48
8	10/18	@Boise StateBOIS	L31-56
10	11/01	vsNew MexicoUNM	L35-40
11	11/08	@Colorado StateCSU	W42-10
12	11/15	vsUtah StateUSU	W29-26
13	11/21	vsHawai'iHAW	Win prob:74%
14	11/29	@NevadaNEV	Win prob:93%

Data from 2025-11-16 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
6-2	68.6%	37.4%
5-3	29.5%	0.2%
4-4	1.9%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-11-16 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

49.2%

30.4%

14.5%

3.5%

2.4%

Data from 2025-11-16 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Colorado StateCSU@Boise StateBOIS	50.4% (+24.7%)	23.8% (-1.9%)
NevadaNEV@WyomingWYO	24.5% (-1.2%)	25.9% (+0.2%)
Hawai'iHAW@UNLVUNLV	0.1% (-25.6%)	34.8% (+9.1%)
New MexicoUNM@Air ForceAF	16.4% (-9.3%)	35.9% (+10.2%)
San José StateSJSU@San Diego StateSDSU	36.5% (+10.8%)	21.0% (-4.7%)
Utah StateUSU@Fresno StateFRES	38.1% (+12.4%)	18.7% (-7.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Colorado State

Nevada

UNLV

Air Force

San Diego State

Utah State

CCG: 98.7% • Scenario: 0.1%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

UNLV

Air Force

CCG: 48.5% • Scenario: 35.2%

Data from 2025-11-16 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

37.4%

68.6%

0.7%

5.3%

Data from 2025-11-16 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-11-16 • SportsSimulate.com