Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
14.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | W23-20 | |
| 1 | 8/30 | L6-40 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W37-20 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W23-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L21-23 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W44-35 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W44-26 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W31-19 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | L38-45 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | W38-6 | |
| 13 | 11/21 | Win prob:26% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:70% |
Data from 2025-11-16
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 18.3% | 65.5% |
| 5-3 | 59.4% | 3.6% |
| 4-4 | 22.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-16
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-16
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 22.7% (+8.6%) | 13.5% (-0.7%) | |
| 7.8% (-6.3%) | 15.0% (+0.9%) | |
| 51.4% (+37.4%) | 0.9% (-13.2%) | |
| 10.4% (-3.7%) | 18.2% (+4.1%) | |
| 20.1% (+6.0%) | 11.5% (-2.6%) | |
| 15.9% (+1.8%) | 13.1% (-1.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Colorado State
WyomingHawai'i
Air Force
Utah StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.3%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Hawai'iCCG: 51.4% • Scenario: 26.2%
Ways for to Clinch 
CCG Spot This Week
Colorado StateWyomingHawai'iAir ForceUtah StateData from 2025-11-16
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
65.5%
18.3%Any 1 loss
3.6%
59.4%18.8%
7.9%
1.3%
51.5%Data from 2025-11-16
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-16