Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
5.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | L10-23 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-6 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W31-28 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L17-21 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L17-20 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W31-30 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W28-21 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | L16-24 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W28-3 | |
| 12 | 11/12 | L19-38 | |
| 13 | 11/19 | Win prob:46% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:28% |
Data from 2025-11-16
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 12.8% | 45.0% |
| 5-3 | 48.0% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 39.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-16
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-16
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 11.4% (+5.6%) | 5.6% (-0.2%) | |
| 0.0% (-5.8%) | 12.6% (+6.8%) | |
| 5.3% (-0.5%) | 6.6% (+0.8%) | |
| 5.8% (+0.0%) | 5.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.0% (+0.2%) | 5.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 5.1% (-0.7%) | 8.5% (+2.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Buffalo
Northern Illinois
Akron
Massachusetts
Kent StateCCG: 36.4% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BuffaloCCG: 12.6% • Scenario: 46.0%
Data from 2025-11-16
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-16