Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
79.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L17-31 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W73-0 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W38-14 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W24-21 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W30-14 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W27-24 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W37-20 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W29-22 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | W20-9 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | L21-23 | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:82% |
Data from 2025-11-16
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 81.8% | 97.0% |
| 6-2 | 18.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-16
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 80.2% (+0.8%) | 76.7% (-2.7%) | |
| 79.2% (-0.2%) | 79.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 79.5% (+0.2%) | 79.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 79.2% (-0.2%) | 79.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 79.5% (+0.1%) | 79.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 81.2% (+1.8%) | 79.2% (-0.2%) | |
| 79.5% (+0.1%) | 79.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 72.1% (-7.3%) | 81.8% (+2.4%) | |
| 80.3% (+0.9%) | 79.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 79.7% (+0.3%) | 79.4% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Eastern Illinois
Western Kentucky
CharlotteCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
VanderbiltCCG: 81.8% • Scenario: 75.1%
Data from 2025-11-16
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
97.0%
73.6%97.0%
8.2%Data from 2025-11-16
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-16