SEC Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-16
Conference Standings
| 1 |  Texas A&MTA&M | 7-0 | 10-0 | 40.8% | |
| 2 |  GeorgiaUGA | 7-1 | 9-1 | 70.3% | |
| T3 |  AlabamaALA | 6-1 | 8-2 | 79.4% | |
| T3 |  Ole MissMISS | 6-1 | 10-1 | 9.6% | |
| T5 |  OklahomaOU | 4-2 | 8-2 | - | |
| T5 |  TexasTEX | 4-2 | 7-3 | - | |
| T5 |  VanderbiltVAN | 4-2 | 8-2 | - | |
| T8 |  MissouriMIZ | 3-3 | 7-3 | - | |
| T8 |  TennesseeTENN | 3-3 | 7-3 | - | |
| 10 |  LSULSU | 3-4 | 6-4 | - | |
| T11 |  FloridaFLA | 2-5 | 3-7 | - | |
| T11 |  KentuckyUK | 2-5 | 5-5 | - | |
| T13 |  AuburnAUB | 1-6 | 4-6 | - | |
| T13 |  Mississippi StateMSST | 1-6 | 5-6 | - | |
| 15 |  South CarolinaSC | 1-7 | 3-7 | - | |
| 16 |  ArkansasARK | 0-6 | 2-8 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-16
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-11-16
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-16
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 79.4%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 80.2% (+0.8%) | 76.7% (-2.7%) | |
| 79.2% (-0.2%) | 79.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 79.5% (+0.2%) | 79.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 79.2% (-0.2%) | 79.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 79.5% (+0.1%) | 79.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 81.2% (+1.8%) | 79.2% (-0.2%) | |
| 79.5% (+0.1%) | 79.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 72.1% (-7.3%) | 81.8% (+2.4%) | |
| 80.3% (+0.9%) | 79.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 79.7% (+0.3%) | 79.4% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Eastern Illinois
Western Kentucky
CharlotteCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
VanderbiltCCG: 81.8% • Scenario: 75.1%
Data from 2025-11-16
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|
| AlabamaALA | - | 97.0% | 79.4% |
| GeorgiaUGA | - | 70.3% | 70.3% |
| Texas A&MTA&M | 100% | 2.3% | 40.8% |
| Ole MissMISS | - | 10.5% | 9.6% |
| ArkansasARK | - | - | - |
| AuburnAUB | - | - | - |
| FloridaFLA | - | - | - |
| KentuckyUK | - | - | - |
| LSULSU | - | - | - |
| Mississippi StateMSST | - | - | - |
| MissouriMIZ | - | - | - |
| OklahomaOU | - | - | - |
| South CarolinaSC | - | - | - |
| TennesseeTENN | - | - | - |
| TexasTEX | - | - | - |
| VanderbiltVAN | - | - | - |
Data from 2025-11-16
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&MTA&M(7-0) | 39.4% | 60.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 7.4 |
| GeorgiaUGA(7-1) | - | 100% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 7.0 |
| Ole MissMISS(6-1) | - | 91.2% | 8.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | 6.9 |
| AlabamaALA(6-1) | - | 81.8% | 18.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | 6.8 |
| TexasTEX(4-2) | - | - | 54.6% | 41.5% | 3.9% | - | - | - | - | 5.5 |
| OklahomaOU(4-2) | - | - | 46.8% | 43.4% | 9.9% | - | - | - | - | 5.4 |
| VanderbiltVAN(4-2) | - | - | 27.2% | 56.9% | 16.0% | - | - | - | - | 5.1 |
| TennesseeTENN(3-3) | - | - | - | 48.9% | 42.5% | 8.6% | - | - | - | 4.4 |
| MissouriMIZ(3-3) | - | - | - | 21.1% | 53.8% | 25.1% | - | - | - | 4.0 |
| LSULSU(3-4) | - | - | - | - | 29.0% | 71.0% | - | - | - | 3.3 |
| KentuckyUK(2-5) | - | - | - | - | - | 24.9% | 75.1% | - | - | 2.2 |
| FloridaFLA(2-5) | - | - | - | - | - | 23.6% | 76.4% | - | - | 2.2 |
| AuburnAUB(1-6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 18.2% | 81.8% | - | 1.2 |
| Mississippi StateMSST(1-6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 8.8% | 91.2% | - | 1.1 |
| South CarolinaSC(1-7) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 100% | - | 1.0 |
| ArkansasARK(0-6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 3.7% | 40.6% | 55.7% | 0.5 |
Data from 2025-11-16